VOLATILITY (indicative)

RANGE  GOLD*  SILVER*  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 02.60 00.05 022 030 00.70 00.06 012 00.14
2 HRS. 05.70 00.13 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 09.40 00.18 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 12.50 00.22 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 22.00 00.50 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 52.00 01.50 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

*Gold and Silver are updated as of Friday Aug. 6., 2021. Other 30 min rows are updated as of 02. Sep .2020 Intraday-price-moves for certain timeframes (showing 'volatility' or range expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 that day, then it's less likely to move much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., expect USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Always be happy to acheive gains equal to the specified time-range. The table is also useful for stop-loss distances.

CHARTS AND OR COMMENTS

Yearly high and lows

Throughout the year, how many days between yearly low and yearly high?

Here is an updated table of the duration between highs and lows and lows to highs in Calendardays. It does not tell when the highs and lows arrive, only duration between them. Updated 28.09.2021

Highs and Lows of the year 2001 - 2021

Over the last 20 years, the table shows that the average time between yearly high and yearly low is more than 200 calendardays (on average).

The last 10 years, the German DAX index and the US Nasdaq100 index have both reached its yearly high before its yearly low, every year but in 2018. Is there a change to this pattern in 2022 where the high of the year steps in first? 

This overview is a clear proof that trends lasts a while.


Soft commodities to Oct 19th

- Blending Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa prices in one chart below.

The chart above shows how the three commodities are developing in 2021 vs earlier years. The weaker seasonal period from late February to May produced no change this year. The current and yearly stronger seasonal stage (May to October) is so far producing + 15%. 

According to seasonality and its historical facts, there is potentially more upside over the next 2 months. Lately, it has been coffee, and now it's sugar driving the prices higher. Cococa could soon be picking up steam also. To see each commodity individually, head over to their respective sections for the regular updates. Obviously, there will be breaks along the way for the price developments.

Trading is risky, it is vital to always to keep stop losses in place at a preferred level in - for financial instrument.


Tuesday 27th of July.

All sections are updated pre US openings for Tuesday the 27th of July 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Pre US Open for Silver, Gold and Platinum

Just pre US stock markets openings Monday, the metals are getting stronger. As this happens, the chart below seems to become more reliable.

The chart is consisting of an equal weight for Silver, Gold and Platinum. As markets are getting closer to mid July, metals are now building their higher and higher lows. This update above is post Friday's closing prices. Seasonality wise presious metals are on the "very correct" path. The green line shows metals development of pervious years.

If jumping on the ban wagon, make always sure to keep appropriate stop losses in place, at all times to make sure you minimize potential losses. Simulatneously, keep the daily volatility in mind and remember that historical performance is no guarantee for future returns.


Monday July 5th 2021

All categories are updated under respective sections.


Metals double bottom

Below is 2021's performances for the precious metals (Gold, Silver, and Platinum) vs the last 5 years. According to the past, the next 40 calendar days seems quite interesting.

Putting Gold, Silver and Platinum together in one graph gives us the pic below.

A double bottom to a slightly higher low the 29th of June, is our latest turningpoint and reference point so far.

If markets proves that our history is a true marketmap, the very next 67 calendar days could lead to higher precious metals prices. This graph is formulated out of the last 15 years (not equally weighted). 


July 2nd - Dax, Nasdaq100, Gold and Silver..

Are all updated pre European opening bell Friday July 2nd.

Look under their sections above.


Gold and Silver updated!

The Gold and Silver sections are updated pre US Markets open for Thursday July 1st.


Gold and Silver Wednesday 30th of June

Both Gold and Silver sections are updated.


Platinum pre Monday 28th of June

 

Platinum happened to see the seasonal low levels over the weekend. It could correspond to what you observe in our chart below. The low may have been set in a few days early this year if daily prices are moving higher from here.

According to seasonalities, Platinum could stay strong over the next 6 - 8 weeks. Depending on the investment style do always keep an appropriate stop loss in case a trade turns south. 

Positive intraday's for Platinum moves around + 2%, and negative moves could easily slip - 3%. This past week may have proven a turnaround by looking at the day to day moves in addition to the seasonality pic above.

The chart above indicates a positive move is in the making. The blue line is the price and is put together with a formulated MACD indicator to show streth and weakness.

The above indicator is derived from RSI levels now signaling strength rather than weakness.

Read more about investment supply and demand for Platinum here.

 

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Platinum Spot and Futures contracts. The charts above, are only historical prices and indicators to see  how Platinum has evolved in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.


Gold and Silver Friday 25.

Both metals are updated under their sections. Gold and Silver.


Precious metals June 22.

Gold, Silver and Platinum have all taken a beating lately, espesially this last week. Bringing up this chart now, because we are getting closer and closer to the major seasonal low in metals. According to long term studies of seasonal cycles, the upcoming weeks should benefit from owning precious metals. As they have been falling and falling, it is diffifult to now trust a sudden turnaround within a few days. But one thing is for sure, seasonal player are probably stepping in try to buy these days because of the trust in their trading system.

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.


Seasonal low in Metals

The seasonal chart below compares the price development for Gold, Silver and Platinum in US dollars in 2021 against earlier years. The chart is freshly updated since the last post 7th of June.

As you see, there is now + - 11 calendar days to the historical seasonal low for metals. Looking to technical indicators, there are no strong factors in place for a turn up yet. There was a weak close yesterday in conjunction to the latest US Federal Reserve press release. It is certainly interesting to follow how the prices develop going into the latter stage of next week. 

170621 - METALS SEASONALITY

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.


SOFT SEASONALITY

Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa - Giving you the updated seasonal chart of the soft commodities. The dark line is so far in 2021. The red line represents the day to day movements throughout the year, - collectively over the last 15 years.

Each of them counts 1/3 each in this graph meaning they are equally weighted.

070621 - softs seasonality

Going forward it will be interesting to see how well this seasonal floor from May 24 will hold going into + - October 19th.

At times, partners and associates of intraday.se do carry positions in the commodities mentioned. If you choose to take part in the commodities space, make sure you always fully understand the risk involved trading these volatile assets. See Disclaimer.


METALS - SEASONALITY

As June is gradually becoming real summer in Europe, prepear for a potentially very strong move in Metals to arrive soon.

This seasonal chart shows how 2021 is evolving VS the yearly historical performance of the metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum). As you see, + - the 27th of June is a time turning point for the precious metals. The stronger period normally lasts into the fall, normally lasting about 74 calendar days. The waiting game has started in the PM sector. Remember that a seasonal move do happen to move counter trend wise, meaning a low (high) could act as a high (low). Therefore, keep always a proper stop loss in place.

070621 - metal seasonality

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.

  


DAX INDEX DAY BY DAY (last 5 yrs)

Revealing the day to day numbers of the German DAX index.

The accumulated performance of each day from the last 5 years is shown in this table. 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

The table will give you the overview of how the index really did throughout the last years. This does not mean the same dates will do the excact same this year or next, but maybe it could give you an indication of what could be coming. At least, have it in the back of your mind. The very upcoming week (7. - 11. of June) has shown sluggish performance. Maybe its all different this year?

060621 - DAX INTRADAY PERFORMANCE 5 yrs

 


BITCOIN DAY BY DAY (last 5 years)

This is an overview of the daily performance in Bitcoin day by day accumulated for the last 5 years: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. 

020621 - BITCOIN DAY BY DAY

Looking at the table, you see the one pattern which stands out - one positive day (acc 5 yrs) is usually followed up by another positive day. The same for a negative day. When having a negative day (acc 5 yrs), it is likely to see the next day as a negative as well.


GOLD DAY BY DAY (last 5 yrs)

Here you got the daily performance of the Goldprice day by day accumulated for the last 5 years: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020.

310521 - GOLD DAY BY DAY

 


Gold at close Wednesday 260521

Goldprice is clearly strong these days, but stalling at the 1.900-level for now. The MACD-level has been strong the last USD 200 and could easily deserve a pause.

Seasonality for Gold points to a lowpoint around the turn of this month. A slide in the price of Gold could be seen by many as a buying oppertunity for the summer to be held into September. 

270521 - XAUUSD AT CLOSE WEDNESDAY


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