VOLATILITY (indicative)

RANGE  GOLD*  SILVER*  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 02.60 00.05 022 030 00.70 00.06 012 00.14
2 HRS. 05.70 00.13 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 09.40 00.18 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 12.50 00.22 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 22.00 00.50 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 52.00 01.50 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

*Gold and Silver are updated as of Friday Aug. 6., 2021. Other 30 min rows are updated as of 02. Sep .2020 Intraday-price-moves for certain timeframes (showing 'volatility' or range expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 that day, then it's less likely to move much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., expect USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Always be happy to acheive gains equal to the specified time-range. The table is also useful for stop-loss distances.

CHARTS AND OR COMMENTS

Tuesday Aug. 31., 2021

All sections below are updated pre US stockmarkets openings for Tuesday Aug. 31., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Pre US openings Mond. 30th Aug., 2021.

All sections below are updated pre US stockmarkets openings for Monday Aug. 30., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


The Following week

Now as the Jackson Hole summit is past, what are markets doing?

A look at Nasadq100 and Gold over the last 20 years, shows that the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index has underperformed the price of Gold the next 5 tradingsessions.

Here is how Gold and Nasdaq100 index has performed every year the following the summit.

Gold (ave. + 0.1%) holds up better than Nasdaq100 (ave. - 0.7%). Last year, both fell 1.6 and 1.7%.

Different topics are discussed each year in Jackson Hole, and markets are contiously at different stages, but these are the true results no matter what.

Saturday Sept. 4th, 2021: This week above Gold + 0.5% and Nasdaq100 + 1.5%.


Gold Silver ratio pre Monday 30th Aug., 2021

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver.

The weekly low is USD 1.2 higher at the end of week 34 compared to week 33.


Seasonalities Softs Frid 27th. Aug., 2021

Seasonalities for Soft commodities (here as Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa) equally weighted, is + 22.7% year to date.


Seasonalities Metals Frid 27th. Aug., 2021

Seasonalities for Metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum) equally weighted, is + 5.4% year to date.


Friday Aug. 27., 2021

All sections below are updated pre US stockmarkets openings for Friday Aug. 27., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


No end in sight...

The ratio for Platinum to Nasdaq100 shows little end in sight.

A renewed All-Time-Low yesterday at 0.064. As one red (blue) often leads to another red (blue), markets just have to await stronger signals, for this current prolonged downtrend to reverse. 

 


Jackson Hole 2021, Gold & Silver

Gold could outperform Nasdaq100 over the Jackson Hole event (see last post below).

But, what about Silver up against Gold?

Silver actually outperforms and holds up better than Gold through the latest 20 Jackson Hole Summits.

The chart above shows how Gold and Silver prices performs from the 1. speach day (this year tomorrow Friday 27th of Aug. to the 6. day post the Summit (this year to next Friday the 3rd. of September. The average development for Gold through this period is + 0.8%, and for Silver + 1.9%. Making this exact trade the last 20 years has accumulated + 15% for Gold, and + 38% for Silver !

Read Disclaimer down below before attempting to make the very same trades. History do not exactly repeat even though it could be a guide.

Saturday Sept. 4th, 2021: This week above Gold + 0.5% and Silver + 2.5%.


Jackson Hole 2021, Nasdaq100

Once a year since 1978, the US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has sponsored a 2 days symposium on an important economic issue facing the U.S. and world economies. This is hosted in late August in beautiful Jackson Hole, Wyoming. To learn more about the location of the annual symposium, watch Bloomberg TV's video External Link"Inside the Central Banking Hangouts of Jackson Hole."

Here is how markets behave through the meetings. Link to the meetings here.

Nasdaq100 vs Gold Jackson Hole

The developments of the Nasdaq100 index is here 'head to head' with the price of Gold. The graph show that Gold outperforms the Nasdaq100 index by alot. All toghether, over the last 20 years, Nasdaq100 shows + 1.8%, and Gold shows + 20.3%.

The duration for the period selected is from the start of the event to markets close 3 calendar days after the last day of the event. For 2021, this means entering the position today Thursday 26th of August and exiting the position this upcoming Tuesday the 31st. of August.

Remember that past performance is never any guarantee of how markets will behave in the future. Read Disclaimer below.


Platinum vs Nasdaq100 Wedn Aug. 25., 2021

The 0.070 was the last day of July. The 0.065 was last Thursday the 19th of August. Markets are at All-Time-Low levels and the Platinum Nasdaq100 ratio closed Tuesday at 0.066.


Tuesday Aug. 24th 2021

All sections below are updated pre Tuesday 24th of August 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Monthly changes

Ever wondering how a particular asset is doing through a certain month?

There is now a monthly performance view for each and every month from 2001 - present in:

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.

The monthly changes table is located below the indicators on the respective sites.

 


Daily Lumber prices pre Mond. Aug. 23

Lumber prices are down 72% the last 106 calendar days.

So  what's next for the development of Lumber prices? They are now at the high level in 2004, 17 years ago. Going forward, follow the changes here.


Metals pre Mond. Aug. 23

Gold, Silver and Platinum are presented in this weekly chart below.

As pointed out in the development for the metals, there is no strengthening signs going into next week. The general price trend for metals are still down rather than up. In this graph Gold, Silver and Platinum are weighted equally, and the view is derived into an Hekin Ashi chart from underlying weekly metals prices.


Nasdaq100 & Gold pre Mond. Aug. 23

Is the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index still better than Gold?

The weekly chart above shows the development of the Nasdaq100 index divided by the price of Gold.

As the graph signals, the index has outperformed Gold since May. This passed week gives a signal of that trend stalling. Is it time for a break or to head south? Gold looks to attempt to hold up better than Nasdaq100. Next week could quickly show if this is more true than false going forward when next week is giving the Blue or Red bar. The higher (lower) the numbers in the graph the more (less) OZ Gold needed in exchange for a contact of Nasdaq100.


Platinum vs Silver pre Mond Aug. 23.

Platinum outperforms Silver.

This passed week Platinum prices outperformed Silver prices. The weekly chart shows the increased momentum. The higher the numbers in the chart above the more Silver it takes to exchange into 1 OZ Platinum.


Gold Silver pre Monday 23rd of Aug.

Gold continues to outperform Silver. See chart below.

This is the weekly Heikin Ashi chart derived from the weekly price development of Gold divided by Silver. The more the numbers creeping up, the more silver it takes to get ahold of 1 OZ Gold. Until markets do see a Red bar, Gold is favoured over Silver. 

 


Friday 20th Aug. 2021

All sections below are updated for Friday 20th. Aug., 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Thursday 19th of Aug. 2021

All sections below are updated for Thursday 19th. Aug., 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Nasdaq100 vs Gold prices

The Nasdaq100 index continues to outperform the price of Gold.

This weekly chart above clearly demonstrates how Nasdaq100 has outperformed the Gold price development in 2021. Especially the last 10 weeks (since late May), the Nasdaq100 index has seen extreme performance. The higher the prices the more OZ Gold it takes to pay for one contract of the Nasdaq100 index.

 


Metals Wedn. 18th Aug.

Metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum eaqually weighted) continues to be a dog here. No strength in sight so far.

This chart above proves that in the weekly Heikin Ashi chart. It is certainly moving down not up (for the moment).

Chart is through week 32 ending Friday the 13th.


Gold to Silver Wedn. 18th Aug.

Gold continues to outperform Silver.

The higher this goes the more silver you need to have to get ahold of every OZ Gold.

 


Pre markets Wedn 18th Aug.

All sections below are updated pre US stockmarkets openings for Wednesday 18th. Aug., 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Pre Friday the 13th Aug.

All sections below are updated pre 'all' stock markets openings for Friday 13. Aug., 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.

Wish you all the best for Friday the 13th!


Pre US markets Thurs 12. Aug.

All sections below are updated pre US stock markets openings for Thursday 12. Aug., 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Soft commodities to Oct 19th

- Blending Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa prices in one chart below.

The chart above shows how the three commodities are developing in 2021 vs earlier years. The weaker seasonal period from late February to May produced no change this year. The current and yearly stronger seasonal stage (May to October) is so far producing + 15%. 

According to seasonality and its historical facts, there is potentially more upside over the next 2 months. Lately, it has been coffee, and now it's sugar driving the prices higher. Cococa could soon be picking up steam also. To see each commodity individually, head over to their respective sections for the regular updates. Obviously, there will be breaks along the way for the price developments.

Trading is risky, it is vital to always to keep stop losses in place at a preferred level in - for financial instrument.


Pre US opens Mond 09. Aug.

All the sections are updated pre US stock markets openings for Monday 09. Aug., 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Platinum pre Monday Aug. 09.

Platinum is now below USD 1.000, which is a level seen as a threshold for the price. The entire last week, saw very weak developments in 4 out of the 5 sessions (Monday was + 0.75%).

In order to gain traction to higher Platinum prices to come, markets must quickly recover towards the USD 1.090 level for further advance. The weekly chart is quite weak, and weakness is often followed by further weakness.


Silver pre Monday Aug. 09.

As for Gold, Silver is ending the past week to the weak side and buliding lower highs in the weekly chart below.

Silver could find some support to prices around the USD 24 level (April and January lows), but according to the graph above there is certainly no immediate buying pressure for the white metal. Markets must challenge the USD 26 level to trigger further upside.


Gold pre Monday Aug. 09.

After holding above the USD 1.800 throghout the week, Gold took a beating Friday to be sold down USD 40 below. The week ended - 3% and trading against the present seasonal trend.

Weakness often leads to more weakness. In a weekly perspective, the Goldprice is now under pressure (see chart above) until markets go back to challenge the USD 1.830 from last week's high.


Pre Friday 06. August

All the sections are updated pre US stock markets openings for Friday 06. Aug., 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Pre Thursday 05. August

All the sections are updated pre European stockmarkets openings for Thursday 05. Aug., 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Silver Thursd. 05. Aug.

Daily Silver prices are seen through a daily Heikin Ashi chart below.

Silver attempted to push higher Wednesday, but failed post the July ISM report. The weaker close has not yet destroyed the visual strength in the daily chart, but be aware of the USD 25.30 level.


Nasdaq100 pre Thurs 05. Aug

Nasdaq 100 index Daily chart below seen through a Heikin Ashi chart.

Technology stocks are still going strong. Entering Thursday's trading, the latest reference low point in the chart above is 14.971. Weakness could be found below that level.


Pre US opens Tuesd 03. Aug.

All sections are updated pre US openings for Tuesday 03. August 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Nasdaq100 for Monday 02. Aug.

Pre-Monday's stock markets openings - here is the Nasdaq100 index on a week to week basis, and day to day basis. Both presented in Heikin Ashi terms. 

NASDAQ100 WEEKLY

There is no doubt the weekly chart is showing extreme strength. Until markets violate the 14.476 level, marked in the diagram, the medium term upside could still be intact. 

On a daily basis. The pattern is quite different. Let's have a look below.

 

NASDAQ100 DAILY

This Nasdaq100 chart is sited intraday by intraday. Friday closed a Red bar, which signals upcoming weakness (read the oposite in the pic for Blue). Now, the 'only' reference point seems to be 14.991 whcich is marked in Red. If the level is violated, there is a greater chance the upside will again resume. Until proven, indications are pointing lower for the index.

I N T R A D A Y . S E

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