VOLATILITY (indicative)

RANGE  GOLD*  SILVER*  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 02.60 00.05 022 030 00.70 00.06 012 00.14
2 HRS. 05.70 00.13 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 09.40 00.18 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 12.50 00.22 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 22.00 00.50 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 52.00 01.50 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

*Gold and Silver are updated as of Friday Aug. 6., 2021. Other 30 min rows are updated as of 02. Sep .2020 Intraday-price-moves for certain timeframes (showing 'volatility' or range expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 that day, then it's less likely to move much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., expect USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Always be happy to acheive gains equal to the specified time-range. The table is also useful for stop-loss distances.

CHARTS AND OR COMMENTS

Gold pre X-mas 2019.

Status Goldprice (14:00 CET) in relation to December Fed meeting yesterday is sited below. The vertical red line is placed '2 hours after US Open tomorrow', Friday. 

The Red graph illustrates where Gold is presently trading compared to the Fed meetings in Aug., Sept., and Nov.. So far Gold is trading inverse (stronger) post the Fed meeting yesterday, compared to the events earlier this summer and fall. The chart do outline the next 4 tradingdays for Aug., Sept., and Nov..

201218 - FED GOLD

If current strength continues, it is also inverse to earlier December Fed meetings researched from 2012 - 2017 which shows weakness post December Fed meetings (see post incl. table from the 18.12.18).


December Fed & Gold next week

Next Wednesday, FOMC will hold its last Federal Reserve meeting of 2018. In conjuction to these meetings, there are larger than normal gold price fluctuations making great short term trading oppertunities. How much gold price change should be expected and in what direction?

The diagram below shows how gold tend to swing the days pre and post a December Fed meeting. Today 12.12, markets are trading day 2 in the overview, were gold has the largest intraday stretch on average from low to high or high to low (the last 6 years). It has not been less than USD 10 the last years, rather closer to USD 20.

Number 8 in the overview, is 'equvalent' to next Wednesday the 19th.

FED GOLD VOLATILITY DECEMBER MEETINGS 2012 - 2017

Looking at the gold price trend through a December Fed meeting, markets on average see a fading price development over the next 2 weeks. See chart below. Next Wednesday is marked in yellow. The last years, gold has struggled to find buyingpower through these December meetings, as stockmarkets have been strong. But who knows, maybe it is all different this year..  

FED GOLD TREND DECEMBER 2012 - 2017

 

 

 


GOLD 14:20-15:20

At times, Gold can make explosive moves as yesterday, when the Fed Chairman held a speech.

Fast forward to 0:32:30 minutes to hear the speech.

GOLD MOVE WEDNESDAY 281118

The markets knew in advance about the upcoming Powell's speech and Gold traded in a tight range in the hours leading up to the event: Then - a way to play this 'potential' explosive move, could be to place 'a stop buy order' at 1.215 one hour into the US trading session and simultaneously place 'a stop loss order' just below the 15:20 CET low or by 1/2 the daily range of USD 12,5. After the excecution of the 'stop buy order', the stop loss could have been trailed to entry at 1.215 or higher. Alternatively, sold out after X USD.

A larger one minute chart with highs and lows showing the FED Gold behaviour from 2 hours pre speech to 3 hours post the speech is at this link. Times are CET.: "A top 22 minutes before the speech, thereby an explosive move to the upside without looking back. Immediate buyingpower. The strong buying lasts only 11 minutes, for there to sell off for 33 minutes. Buying comes in again lasting 29 minutes, for then to fade off over the next 56 minutes".

Here is tick by tick of how Gold vs Silver vs Nasdaq100 index moved parts of this intraday.

GOLDSIVERNASDAQ100SPEACH281118

All 3 strong, but Gold most reluctant, Silver more explosive, Nasdaq100 steady strong buying. 

Speaking of moves in the Gold market, 15:20 CET is an interesting timewindow. It is just ahead of the US Open, but also the time where short trades from 14:20 CET could be exited:

Throughout the tradingweek, research proves that the Gold market favours traders to stay short from 14:20 - 15:20 CET.

goldweektrades

The last few weeks has changed these tradingpatterns slightly, and Wednesday has gone from showing a positive hour to a negative hour. All 5 tradingdays of the week are presently in a negative territory this one trading hour. See last post here.

The wild 'FED chart' above is a great example of how quickly markets may change.

Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place. No matter the direction of the trade. Passed performance does not equal future performance. 

For questions or comments email any time intraday@intraday.no


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