VOLATILITY (indicative)

RANGE  GOLD*  SILVER*  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 02.60 00.05 022 030 00.70 00.06 012 00.14
2 HRS. 05.70 00.13 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 09.40 00.18 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 12.50 00.22 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 22.00 00.50 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 52.00 01.50 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

*Gold and Silver are updated as of Friday Aug. 6., 2021. Other 30 min rows are updated as of 02. Sep .2020 Intraday-price-moves for certain timeframes (showing 'volatility' or range expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 that day, then it's less likely to move much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., expect USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Always be happy to acheive gains equal to the specified time-range. The table is also useful for stop-loss distances.

CHARTS AND OR COMMENTS

Monthly changes

Ever wondering how a particular asset is doing through a certain month?

There is now a monthly performance view for each and every month from 2001 - present in:

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.

The monthly changes table is located below the indicators on the respective sites.

 


PLATINUM MONDAY JULY 26.

Together with Gold and Silver, Platinum prices are acting heavy these days. The precious metal should historically trade higher from end of June into August or September, but the chart below shows weakness rather than strength. 

Trades above 1109, which is the latest bar high in the chart above, could be the first indication in the weekly chart, for higher prices to come.

 


GOLD FOR MONDAY JULY 26.

Gold is basically sideways the last two weeks, see chart bleow.

Unless there is tradingaction above 1.825 in the coming week, the metal could next be under pressure.


SILVER FOR MONDAY JULY 26.

Silver looks heavy in the weekly chart, see below.

There is little strength unless Silver prices starts trading above 26.50.


Days to Yearly high

....Suprised "nobody" brings up this issue.

From the start of the year, how long does it take before a market makes its Year high level?

Looking into the last 20 years for both the Nasdaq100 index and the German DAX index, there are interesting findings. First of all, they most often bring in the Yearly high about the same time every year. If there are many days in between respective highs, it  is easily because of a consolidation for one of the indices having several high-points that very year.

Below you see the present state. Either markets turns down "now" from the now Year high's (marked with a red line), or next, lasts at least 55 more calendar days (Green line).

Walking through the fall without challenges for markets could quickly mean the Nasdaq100 and the DAX continues higher into "year end".

Calendardays To Yearly high'sThis is history so you never know about markets. Whatever you choose to do, make sure the preferred stop loss is in place. 


PLATINUM WEEKLY

Is there enough strength in the current Platinum markets to push prices higher or lower?

The answer might be in this chart below as it is easy to get caught up in the noice.

The chart below is showing the weekly performance for Platinum prices through Friday the 16th of July. The graph is derived from weekly price changes. Week open, week low, week high and week close.


SILVER WEEKLY

Is there enough strength in the current Silver markets to push prices higher or lower?

The answer might be in this chart below as it is easy to get caught up in the noice.

The chart below is showing the weekly performance for Silver prices through Friday the 16th of July. The graph is derived from weekly price changes. Week open, week low, week high and week close.


GOLD WEEKLY

Is there enough strength in the current Gold markets to push prices higher or lower?

The answer might be in this chart below as it is easy to get caught up in the noice.

The chart below is showing the weekly performance for Gold prices through Friday the 16th of July. The graph is derived from weekly price changes. Week open, week low, week high and week close.


Lumber prices

LUMBER PRICES AT THE YEAR 1993 LEVELS.

From late October 2020 last year to the beginning of May 2021, Lumber prices soared 240%. That's alot of change in raw material prices in a very short time.

The last 50 tradingdays have erased it all, retracing 70% equal to the entire up-move. The story does not stop there.

Did you know that 28 years ago, lumber prices was at the same level as it is today? But we fast forward to 2018 and the historical graph is displayed below.

From May of 2018 (Lumber was a little higher than it is today) to April last year (over 686 calendar days) prices fell as much as 59%. From april 2020 to May 2021 (over 400 calendar days), the prices actually exploded as much as +539%.

Since the beginning of May (now 50 tradingdays), prices have fallen 70% and is back to those famous 1993-levels.

So, as of today Lumber prices have "done nothing in 28 years", but with extreme fluctuations. - Is it time for Lumber prices start climbing steadily higher in the years to come?

210721 - lumber history

This chart show you the daily Lumber Futures prices from Jan 1st 1980 to July 21st of 2021.

Make sure you totally understand the risk in trading futures. Past performance is not future performance. 


Platinum vs Nasdaq100

Is it time for the rare white metal (Platinum) to outperform the technology weighted Nasdaq100?

 

020621 - PLATINUM VS NASDAQ100

The pic above shows an attempt for the Platinum Nasdaq100 index ratio to move higher from a higher low-level than its all-time-low in November of last year. The MACD indicator is now showing a higher bar than yesterday and the day before, giving support to the textbook for higher prices to come.

For this price-graph to move higher (lower) we need to see Platinum outperform (underperform) the Nasdaq100 index.

Partners and associates to Intraday.se may at times have positions in both instruments. 


Nasdaq100 & Silver 041218.

After the last strong intradays, here is an updated chart vs the map of DJIA 1973-1974.

Nasdaq100 do continue to follow the 1973-1974 map of DJIA. Over the next period, markets would now see a lowpoint in approx. 30 intradays from yesterdays close.

Thereafter, rising prices equivalent to + 5.3% compared to yesterday's close . In time - in 51 tradingdays. From this point, markets could start the 143 days downtrend to mark its lowpoint in the beginning of October 2019. This slide may be counted as a fall of - 34%.

041218djia1973-1974

Only time will show if 1973-1974 proves to be the most 'correct' historical path.

 

Below is the Nasdaq100 index up against the price of Silver. A ratio is created to see the relative present values. The All time high for the Nasdaq100 index is marked by the vertical line for a broader perspective.

041218NASDAQ100SILVERATIO 


1973-1974 vs 2018-2019.

An interesting observation about 1973 into 1974.

If present market status is to be compared to 1973 - 1974, there are interesting observations for the next year, see chart below. The red line shows where the Nasdaq100 index stands today, and the dark line shows the development for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

DJIA 1973 VS NQ100 2018

- The Nasdaq100 index will see a broader consolidation fase (or stay relatively unchanged) from present levels until the second week of June of 2019.

But - over the coming 55 tradingdays, markets will see an upturn of + 9.5%, and thereby slide -34% over 143 tradingdays into its first week of October of 2019.

That October 2019 low, will be retested one percent lower 45 intradays later, in early December of 2019. The periods mentioned are marked in the chart above with red dots.

Passed performance do never equal future performance. 


Nasdaq100's next fase

A few days ago, the 16th of November, this post was put out for the Nasdaq100 index.

Continuing the conversation about the Nasdaq100 development, the big question is IF the index now will continue to follow the 2007 route (see graph below), or - if it will drop straight through the floor (red support line) and outpace the 2007 into 2008 downtrend.

The two red dots marked in the dark graph below shows a fall of 20% in 56 tradingdays. For the present red graph to follow this map more closely, the index should preferrably bounce in the beginning of this week, for thereby to start the real - 20% drop about Thursday the 29th of November to last 56 intradays. 

nasdaq100 now vs 2007 into 2008

Only time will show if there is some validity to this 2007 into 2008 map...

If now taking this a step further adding the 1973 and 1987 for the DJIA and 2000 and 2007 for the Nasdaq100 index, and comparing it to present levels for the Nasdaq100 index - this is what you got:

MARKETS

The red dots marks the low point of its respective downtrends.

Calculated from Fridays close, you will find that the DJIA development in 1973 is 2.7% lower in 36 tradingdays. The DJIA in 1987 is 21% lower in 34 tradingdays. The year 2000 for the Nasdaq100 index equals 10% lower in 4 days, and the Nasdaq100 in 2007 is 20% lower in 56 intradays.


Nasdaq100 - 20% soon?

Will Nasdaq100 soon drop 20%?

From the recent market peak October 1st, we have compared the Nasdaq100 index to marketmoves in 2007, 2000 and 1987.

If you are taking a closer look at the Nasdaq100 index peak for 2007 trading into 2008, you see high correlations to the present market situation. See chart below.

NASDAQ100NOWVS2007

If this 2007 chart above is a roadmap going forward - a drop of 20% in 56 tradingdays is within reach for the Nasdaq100 index shortly:

Transferring the 2007 points to the present situation, the first red dot would now be placed on next next Tuesday the 29th of November. A second red dot will be placed 56 tradingdays later and turn out to be about 15th of January 2019.

The red hoisontal lines are set to show the importance to the supportlevel from 29th of october this year duplicated from the 2007 supportlevel. A daily close below this area is quickly a confirmation of weakness.

Only time will show is this route is the present correct map into 2019.

 


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