VOLATILITY (indicative)

RANGE  GOLD*  SILVER*  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 02.60 00.05 022 030 00.70 00.06 012 00.14
2 HRS. 05.70 00.13 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 09.40 00.18 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 12.50 00.22 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 22.00 00.50 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 52.00 01.50 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

*Gold and Silver are updated as of Friday Aug. 6., 2021. Other 30 min rows are updated as of 02. Sep .2020 Intraday-price-moves for certain timeframes (showing 'volatility' or range expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 that day, then it's less likely to move much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., expect USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Always be happy to acheive gains equal to the specified time-range. The table is also useful for stop-loss distances.

CHARTS AND OR COMMENTS

Metals into week 43.

Gold, Silver and Platinum are collectively higher this past week.

The chart above contains Gold, Silver and Platinum equally weighted. This last week shows a higher high and a higher low giving precious metals signs of further potential strength to come.


Metals into week 42

After week 41, metals markets are generally higher, and buiding higher highs and lows.

The chart of Gold, Silver and Platinum equally weighted, did show clear strength this past week. Looking at the graph, going into week 42 should be positive for higher precious metals prices to come.


Metals into week 41

After week 40, there are some signs to metals potentially moving higher with Platinum leading the pack. For the week Platinum was up 5% + , Gold unchanged and Silver + 0.6%.

 

This graph gives the picture of Gold, Silver and Platinum. All equally weighted.

The weekly chart do show a higher low and and a higher high. This is a positive sign. Looking at the weekly trend for three metals there is no change to the present downward pressure. But, if they do show strength through week 41, there will be renewed signs of possibly higher metal prices to come.

 


Metals into week 40

After week 39, metals are still havy with the attempt to go somewhat higher towards the end of the week.

The graph above consists of Gold, Silver and Platinum weighted 1/3 each. To get a clearer picture of the actual trend, the derived candle chart (Heikin Ashi) shows prices are still trading lower on a weekly timescale.

The low for the week was actually higher than prior week and similar to the week before. This could indicate some type of floor to the precious metals prices for now.

In order to be more confident in a potential renewed uptrend to come, markets should make a nice blue weekly bar this upcoming week # 40, October 04 - 08.


When is Low of the Year?

In the search for the Low-month of the year, here are the results:

Metals and index Low of the year

The table includes Silver, Gold, Platinum, DAX and Nasdaq100.

1 is January and 12 is December. 

2021: So far this year.


When is High of the Year?

In the search for the High-month of the year, here are the results:

High in metals and index

The table includes Silver, Gold, Platinum, DAX and Nasdaq100.

1 is January and 12 is December.

2021: So far this year.


Metals after week 38

Gold, Silver and Platinum continue to perform poorly on a weekly basis.

Looking at the chart above where Gold, Silver and Platinum accounts for 33% each, the trend continues lower.

The latest week 38 bar, shows a lower low indicating continued weakness. In order to see strength in the metals space, investors should look for a renewed Blue bar on a weekly timescale to gain traction again.


Yearly high and lows

Throughout the year, how many days between yearly low and yearly high?

Here is an updated table of the duration between highs and lows and lows to highs in Calendardays. It does not tell when the highs and lows arrive, only duration between them. Updated 28.09.2021

Highs and Lows of the year 2001 - 2021

Over the last 20 years, the table shows that the average time between yearly high and yearly low is more than 200 calendardays (on average).

The last 10 years, the German DAX index and the US Nasdaq100 index have both reached its yearly high before its yearly low, every year but in 2018. Is there a change to this pattern in 2022 where the high of the year steps in first? 

This overview is a clear proof that trends lasts a while.


Metals for week 38, 2021

Precious Metals contine to trade lower giving Metal Bulls a prolonged headache. The latest seasonality trend did not work out for higher prices, and 2 weeks ago started a seasonal weaker period.

According to the weekly chart above where Gold, Silver and Platinum is equally weighted the overall trend continues sideways to south. Last week traded down through technical support levels for all 3.

As long as the bars are red, there is a weakening performance to the developments going forward. The very last bar shows a lower high and a lower low and thereby no sign of pushing higher (for now).


Gold outperforming Silver?

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver.  See the weekly chart below as presented by Gold divided by Silver. And the higher it goes the more Silver is needed to convert it into that very 1 OZ Gold.

According to the weekly price pattern for OZ Gold into OZ Silver, the trend keeps its upward momentum favoring the yellow metal for now. The clear blue bars will distroy the uptrend if markets see the ratio below the 74-level.

More: An historical guide to the Gold-Silver Ratio, by JB Maverick at Investopedia here.


NO GO for the Silverbulls?

Is there a NO GO for the Silverbulls? - When is Yearly lowpoint and Yearly highpoint for Silver prices?

The overview above shows the year high- and low points for Silver prices for each of the last 20 years.

Silver high in 2021 happened within the first two weeks of the year. Low was marked August 20th, 231 calendardays into the year. Interestingly, the year 2007 had a low about the same time of the year (see Red bar in 2007), but then a year-high (see Blue bar in 2007) in the beginning of November.  In order for this to happen this year, Silver needs to trade significantly higher very soon, and also go against the seasonal pattern which is down at the moment. The graph shows that Red bars above the 'horizontal 231 line' also shows a Blue bar quite early in the year. The bars above 'the 231 line' lasts 254 to 326 calendardays into the year...

The conclusion to this overview is that history could show there might be even lower Silver prices to come from the present 23.75 level - unless something happens very very soon.  

Trading the volatile Silver, make sure there is always a proper stop loss in place. 


Metals into week 36, 2021

Metals are stronger through week 35.

This graph above is equally weighted for Gold, Silver and Platinum, showing strength last week represented in a blue bar.

Gold vs Silver:

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver in the weekly perspective.

Nasdaq100 vs Gold:

 And the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index continues to outpace the price of Gold.


Gold Silver ratio pre Monday 30th Aug., 2021

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver.

The weekly low is USD 1.2 higher at the end of week 34 compared to week 33.


Jackson Hole 2021, Gold & Silver

Gold could outperform Nasdaq100 over the Jackson Hole event (see last post below).

But, what about Silver up against Gold?

Silver actually outperforms and holds up better than Gold through the latest 20 Jackson Hole Summits.

The chart above shows how Gold and Silver prices performs from the 1. speach day (this year tomorrow Friday 27th of Aug. to the 6. day post the Summit (this year to next Friday the 3rd. of September. The average development for Gold through this period is + 0.8%, and for Silver + 1.9%. Making this exact trade the last 20 years has accumulated + 15% for Gold, and + 38% for Silver !

Read Disclaimer down below before attempting to make the very same trades. History do not exactly repeat even though it could be a guide.

Saturday Sept. 4th, 2021: This week above Gold + 0.5% and Silver + 2.5%.


Monthly changes

Ever wondering how a particular asset is doing through a certain month?

There is now a monthly performance view for each and every month from 2001 - present in:

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.

The monthly changes table is located below the indicators on the respective sites.

 


Metals pre Mond. Aug. 23

Gold, Silver and Platinum are presented in this weekly chart below.

As pointed out in the development for the metals, there is no strengthening signs going into next week. The general price trend for metals are still down rather than up. In this graph Gold, Silver and Platinum are weighted equally, and the view is derived into an Hekin Ashi chart from underlying weekly metals prices.


Platinum vs Silver pre Mond Aug. 23.

Platinum outperforms Silver.

This passed week Platinum prices outperformed Silver prices. The weekly chart shows the increased momentum. The higher the numbers in the chart above the more Silver it takes to exchange into 1 OZ Platinum.


Gold Silver pre Monday 23rd of Aug.

Gold continues to outperform Silver. See chart below.

This is the weekly Heikin Ashi chart derived from the weekly price development of Gold divided by Silver. The more the numbers creeping up, the more silver it takes to get ahold of 1 OZ Gold. Until markets do see a Red bar, Gold is favoured over Silver. 

 


Metals Wedn. 18th Aug.

Metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum eaqually weighted) continues to be a dog here. No strength in sight so far.

This chart above proves that in the weekly Heikin Ashi chart. It is certainly moving down not up (for the moment).

Chart is through week 32 ending Friday the 13th.


Gold to Silver Wedn. 18th Aug.

Gold continues to outperform Silver.

The higher this goes the more silver you need to have to get ahold of every OZ Gold.

 



RSS

I N T R A D A Y . S E

IMG_4240

TO

INTRADAY.SE

instagram

 

SOFT COMMODITIES

What would you trade? (i)




PRECIOUS METALS

What would you trade? (ii)



HOLDING PERIOD

You hold positions for?







TRADING

You mostly trade?




MACRO ECON

You prefer to watch?



GOLD INTRADAY XAU

SILVER INTRADAY XAG

GOLD SILVER RATIO

NASDAQ 100 INTRADAY

DAX INTRADAY

COFFEE ONE YEAR