VOLATILITY (indicative)

RANGE  GOLD*  SILVER*  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 02.60 00.05 022 030 00.70 00.06 012 00.14
2 HRS. 05.70 00.13 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 09.40 00.18 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 12.50 00.22 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 22.00 00.50 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 52.00 01.50 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

*Gold and Silver are updated as of Friday Aug. 6., 2021. Other 30 min rows are updated as of 02. Sep .2020 Intraday-price-moves for certain timeframes (showing 'volatility' or range expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 that day, then it's less likely to move much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., expect USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Always be happy to acheive gains equal to the specified time-range. The table is also useful for stop-loss distances.

CHARTS AND OR COMMENTS

Metals for week 38, 2021

Precious Metals contine to trade lower giving Metal Bulls a prolonged headache. The latest seasonality trend did not work out for higher prices, and 2 weeks ago started a seasonal weaker period.

According to the weekly chart above where Gold, Silver and Platinum is equally weighted the overall trend continues sideways to south. Last week traded down through technical support levels for all 3.

As long as the bars are red, there is a weakening performance to the developments going forward. The very last bar shows a lower high and a lower low and thereby no sign of pushing higher (for now).


Gold outperforming Silver?

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver.  See the weekly chart below as presented by Gold divided by Silver. And the higher it goes the more Silver is needed to convert it into that very 1 OZ Gold.

According to the weekly price pattern for OZ Gold into OZ Silver, the trend keeps its upward momentum favoring the yellow metal for now. The clear blue bars will distroy the uptrend if markets see the ratio below the 74-level.

More: An historical guide to the Gold-Silver Ratio, by JB Maverick at Investopedia here.


NO GO for the Silverbulls?

Is there a NO GO for the Silverbulls? - When is Yearly lowpoint and Yearly highpoint for Silver prices?

The overview above shows the year high- and low points for Silver prices for each of the last 20 years.

Silver high in 2021 happened within the first two weeks of the year. Low was marked August 20th, 231 calendardays into the year. Interestingly, the year 2007 had a low about the same time of the year (see Red bar in 2007), but then a year-high (see Blue bar in 2007) in the beginning of November.  In order for this to happen this year, Silver needs to trade significantly higher very soon, and also go against the seasonal pattern which is down at the moment. The graph shows that Red bars above the 'horizontal 231 line' also shows a Blue bar quite early in the year. The bars above 'the 231 line' lasts 254 to 326 calendardays into the year...

The conclusion to this overview is that history could show there might be even lower Silver prices to come from the present 23.75 level - unless something happens very very soon.  

Trading the volatile Silver, make sure there is always a proper stop loss in place. 


Monday Sept. 13., 2021

All sections below are updated for Monday Sept. 13., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Thursday Sept. 9., 2021

All sections below are updated Thursday Sept. 9., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Metals into week 36, 2021

Metals are stronger through week 35.

This graph above is equally weighted for Gold, Silver and Platinum, showing strength last week represented in a blue bar.

Gold vs Silver:

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver in the weekly perspective.

Nasdaq100 vs Gold:

 And the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index continues to outpace the price of Gold.


Thurs Sept. 2., 2021

All sections below are updated pre European stock markets openings for Thursday Sept. 2., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Wedn Sept. 1., 2021

All sections below are updated pre US stockmarkets openings for Wednesday Sept. 1., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Tuesday Aug. 31., 2021

All sections below are updated pre US stockmarkets openings for Tuesday Aug. 31., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Pre US openings Mond. 30th Aug., 2021.

All sections below are updated pre US stockmarkets openings for Monday Aug. 30., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


The Following week

Now as the Jackson Hole summit is past, what are markets doing?

A look at Nasadq100 and Gold over the last 20 years, shows that the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index has underperformed the price of Gold the next 5 tradingsessions.

Here is how Gold and Nasdaq100 index has performed every year the following the summit.

Gold (ave. + 0.1%) holds up better than Nasdaq100 (ave. - 0.7%). Last year, both fell 1.6 and 1.7%.

Different topics are discussed each year in Jackson Hole, and markets are contiously at different stages, but these are the true results no matter what.

Saturday Sept. 4th, 2021: This week above Gold + 0.5% and Nasdaq100 + 1.5%.


Gold Silver ratio pre Monday 30th Aug., 2021

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver.

The weekly low is USD 1.2 higher at the end of week 34 compared to week 33.


Seasonalities Softs Frid 27th. Aug., 2021

Seasonalities for Soft commodities (here as Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa) equally weighted, is + 22.7% year to date.


Seasonalities Metals Frid 27th. Aug., 2021

Seasonalities for Metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum) equally weighted, is + 5.4% year to date.


Friday Aug. 27., 2021

All sections below are updated pre US stockmarkets openings for Friday Aug. 27., 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


No end in sight...

The ratio for Platinum to Nasdaq100 shows little end in sight.

A renewed All-Time-Low yesterday at 0.064. As one red (blue) often leads to another red (blue), markets just have to await stronger signals, for this current prolonged downtrend to reverse. 

 


Jackson Hole 2021, Gold & Silver

Gold could outperform Nasdaq100 over the Jackson Hole event (see last post below).

But, what about Silver up against Gold?

Silver actually outperforms and holds up better than Gold through the latest 20 Jackson Hole Summits.

The chart above shows how Gold and Silver prices performs from the 1. speach day (this year tomorrow Friday 27th of Aug. to the 6. day post the Summit (this year to next Friday the 3rd. of September. The average development for Gold through this period is + 0.8%, and for Silver + 1.9%. Making this exact trade the last 20 years has accumulated + 15% for Gold, and + 38% for Silver !

Read Disclaimer down below before attempting to make the very same trades. History do not exactly repeat even though it could be a guide.

Saturday Sept. 4th, 2021: This week above Gold + 0.5% and Silver + 2.5%.


Jackson Hole 2021, Nasdaq100

Once a year since 1978, the US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has sponsored a 2 days symposium on an important economic issue facing the U.S. and world economies. This is hosted in late August in beautiful Jackson Hole, Wyoming. To learn more about the location of the annual symposium, watch Bloomberg TV's video External Link"Inside the Central Banking Hangouts of Jackson Hole."

Here is how markets behave through the meetings. Link to the meetings here.

Nasdaq100 vs Gold Jackson Hole

The developments of the Nasdaq100 index is here 'head to head' with the price of Gold. The graph show that Gold outperforms the Nasdaq100 index by alot. All toghether, over the last 20 years, Nasdaq100 shows + 1.8%, and Gold shows + 20.3%.

The duration for the period selected is from the start of the event to markets close 3 calendar days after the last day of the event. For 2021, this means entering the position today Thursday 26th of August and exiting the position this upcoming Tuesday the 31st. of August.

Remember that past performance is never any guarantee of how markets will behave in the future. Read Disclaimer below.


Platinum vs Nasdaq100 Wedn Aug. 25., 2021

The 0.070 was the last day of July. The 0.065 was last Thursday the 19th of August. Markets are at All-Time-Low levels and the Platinum Nasdaq100 ratio closed Tuesday at 0.066.


Tuesday Aug. 24th 2021

All sections below are updated pre Tuesday 24th of August 2021. 

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.



RSS

I N T R A D A Y . S E

IMG_4240

TO

INTRADAY.SE

instagram

 

SOFT COMMODITIES

What would you trade? (i)




PRECIOUS METALS

What would you trade? (ii)



HOLDING PERIOD

You hold positions for?







TRADING

You mostly trade?




MACRO ECON

You prefer to watch?



GOLD INTRADAY XAU

SILVER INTRADAY XAG

GOLD SILVER RATIO

NASDAQ 100 INTRADAY

DAX INTRADAY

COFFEE ONE YEAR