CHARTS AND COMMENTS

Soft commodities into week 43.

The lower prices for Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are presented below.

- Continuing the chart above from last week. There is now overhead resistance to "collective" Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa prices. The chart shows a lower low and a lower high on the weekly time scale. This signals potentially lower rather than higher prices for the soft commodities to come.


Facts on Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa

So what about inflation - any pressure from Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa prices?

Absoulutely NOT. Looking at the 3 common soft commodities there is very little inflation in broader terms;  Since February 2020 into July this year, these commodities actually collectively fell 17%. The latest 13 weeks they are up 16%. The soft commodity markets are still lower than they where in February 2020, and also compared to December of last year.

The question becomes rather if it is ok to view them all 3 in the very same chart...

 

Looking at the weekly graph, there now seems to be collectively price resistance around the two former peaks formed the last two winterseasons. After the recent upside price pressure, history shows prices could quickly reverse down again or pause at current levels.


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