CHARTS AND COMMENTS

Gold pre X-mas 2019.

Status Goldprice (14:00 CET) in relation to December Fed meeting yesterday is sited below. The vertical red line is placed '2 hours after US Open tomorrow', Friday. 

The Red graph illustrates where Gold is presently trading compared to the Fed meetings in Aug., Sept., and Nov.. So far Gold is trading inverse (stronger) post the Fed meeting yesterday, compared to the events earlier this summer and fall. The chart do outline the next 4 tradingdays for Aug., Sept., and Nov..

201218 - FED GOLD

If current strength continues, it is also inverse to earlier December Fed meetings researched from 2012 - 2017 which shows weakness post December Fed meetings (see post incl. table from the 18.12.18).


December FED, Gold and Nasdaq100

The overviews below might give clues to how it is likely for markets to develop over the next few intradays.

The tables show Gold's and Nasdaq100's price change pre and post passed a December Fed meeting. This December two day meeting starts today and finishes tomorrow Wednesday 19th.

See the event live here Wednesday 19th at 2:30 pm (GMT + 1 HR).

The tables shows day number 8 as tomorrows Fed day and is highlighted in yellow.

In general, Gold points to a low after the fed meeting except for last year. For this year 1.251 is the high price to watch so far, and 1.233 as the low for the analyzed period. Gold range easily more than USD 40 from high to low or low to high.

181218 - FED GOLD 2018

 

Nasdaq100 noted below, shows strength for a duration of 7 - 12 tradingdays lasting a few days post the FED meeting. The yellow line is also here noted on day 8 which is 'equvanlent' with tomorrow. When looking at the table, it could be relevant to see that Nasdaq100 have already fallen 450 points for this December. 

181218 - NASDAQ100 FED DECEMBER MEETING

Only time will show if this year is different. Always remeber to hold a preferred stop loss in place at all times.


December Fed & Gold next week

Next Wednesday, FOMC will hold its last Federal Reserve meeting of 2018. In conjuction to these meetings, there are larger than normal gold price fluctuations making great short term trading oppertunities. How much gold price change should be expected and in what direction?

The diagram below shows how gold tend to swing the days pre and post a December Fed meeting. Today 12.12, markets are trading day 2 in the overview, were gold has the largest intraday stretch on average from low to high or high to low (the last 6 years). It has not been less than USD 10 the last years, rather closer to USD 20.

Number 8 in the overview, is 'equvalent' to next Wednesday the 19th.

FED GOLD VOLATILITY DECEMBER MEETINGS 2012 - 2017

Looking at the gold price trend through a December Fed meeting, markets on average see a fading price development over the next 2 weeks. See chart below. Next Wednesday is marked in yellow. The last years, gold has struggled to find buyingpower through these December meetings, as stockmarkets have been strong. But who knows, maybe it is all different this year..  

FED GOLD TREND DECEMBER 2012 - 2017

 

 

 


Dax and Gold for Tuesday 111218.

There are two routes put out for tomorrow Tuesday 11.12.18.

The first one is an analysis of Gold. The yellow metal do trade quite strongly during parts of Tuesday since this passed summer.

GOLD INTRADAY TUESDAY 111218 

Gold's three interesting timewindows to look out for tomorrow Tuesday, is just after midnight (all times displayed are set for CET / GMT + 1 HR.). The second timewindow is around 14:30 when the US Producer Price Index numbers are released. And the third window approx one hour before US trading session close. 

The Dax Future index map below shows a strong trending european stock market session for tomorrow Tuesday. The route suggests a down, but maps could be inverse.

DAX MAP TUESDAY 111218 

Remember that these maps are created based on researched intraday data, and may differ totally from what actually will happen in the markets. The timewindows could pinpoint market turns of interest or signal support or resistance to prices as they develop. You never know until tomorrow is history.

Always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all positions, and be aware of the daily ranges.

On top of this page you will see how much certain instruments move within its certain timeframe.

 

...And below - the actual traded Gold market and DAX Future for this Tuesday:

131218 - GOLD ACTUAL TUESDAY 111218

When it comes to the Gold development for Tuesday (see actual traded chart above), the map outlined to buy at about 00:10 CET for then to sell out the position at 14:30 CET. At 14:30 CET, a short position is entered and then covered around 20:50 CET. The range (low to high, or high to low) this intraday was USD 7. Following the map took home the profit of + USD 6.9, using only stop loss of USD 2 a trade. Tight, but enough to not be stopped out.

Below is the Dax Future to be compared to its map (further up in this post).

131218 - DAX ACTUAL INTRADAY TUESDAY

The Dax Future suggested a strong trending map for Tuesday, and a potentially inverse one. This turned out to be the case.

So -  If believing in an inverse actual traded intraday, trading starts off 09:20 CET as a long position to be sold out around 16:10 CET, for then to switch to a short position to be covered 17:30 CET. This scenario made + 205 points with a 30 points stop loss. 

If the sited map was 100% followed, the stop loss would have determined the profit / loss case for the intraday. When entering a short position 09:20 CET, a stop loss of 30 points would have been hit within an hour. At that time or later in the day, a thought is to see the next upcoming timewindow as a high rather than a low for thereby to go short again. A short trade 16:10 CET to be covered 17:30 was highly profitable (+ 45 points). When adding this to the first loosing trade, this Tuesday turned out + 15 points. 


Nasdaq100 & Silver 041218.

After the last strong intradays, here is an updated chart vs the map of DJIA 1973-1974.

Nasdaq100 do continue to follow the 1973-1974 map of DJIA. Over the next period, markets would now see a lowpoint in approx. 30 intradays from yesterdays close.

Thereafter, rising prices equivalent to + 5.3% compared to yesterday's close . In time - in 51 tradingdays. From this point, markets could start the 143 days downtrend to mark its lowpoint in the beginning of October 2019. This slide may be counted as a fall of - 34%.

041218djia1973-1974

Only time will show if 1973-1974 proves to be the most 'correct' historical path.

 

Below is the Nasdaq100 index up against the price of Silver. A ratio is created to see the relative present values. The All time high for the Nasdaq100 index is marked by the vertical line for a broader perspective.

041218NASDAQ100SILVERATIO 

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