CHARTS AND COMMENTS

Facts on Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa

So what about inflation - any pressure from Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa prices?

Absoulutely NOT. Looking at the 3 common soft commodities there is very little inflation in broader terms;  Since February 2020 into July this year, these commodities actually collectively fell 17%. The latest 13 weeks they are up 16%. The soft commodity markets are still lower than they where in February 2020, and also compared to December of last year.

The question becomes rather if it is ok to view them all 3 in the very same chart...

 

Looking at the weekly graph, there now seems to be collectively price resistance around the two former peaks formed the last two winterseasons. After the recent upside price pressure, history shows prices could quickly reverse down again or pause at current levels.


Sunday Oct 17th.

All sections are updated for Monday Oct. 18., 2021:

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.

 


Metals into week 42

After week 41, metals markets are generally higher, and buiding higher highs and lows.

The chart of Gold, Silver and Platinum equally weighted, did show clear strength this past week. Looking at the graph, going into week 42 should be positive for higher precious metals prices to come.


Metals into week 41

After week 40, there are some signs to metals potentially moving higher with Platinum leading the pack. For the week Platinum was up 5% + , Gold unchanged and Silver + 0.6%.

 

This graph gives the picture of Gold, Silver and Platinum. All equally weighted.

The weekly chart do show a higher low and and a higher high. This is a positive sign. Looking at the weekly trend for three metals there is no change to the present downward pressure. But, if they do show strength through week 41, there will be renewed signs of possibly higher metal prices to come.

 


Metals into week 40

After week 39, metals are still havy with the attempt to go somewhat higher towards the end of the week.

The graph above consists of Gold, Silver and Platinum weighted 1/3 each. To get a clearer picture of the actual trend, the derived candle chart (Heikin Ashi) shows prices are still trading lower on a weekly timescale.

The low for the week was actually higher than prior week and similar to the week before. This could indicate some type of floor to the precious metals prices for now.

In order to be more confident in a potential renewed uptrend to come, markets should make a nice blue weekly bar this upcoming week # 40, October 04 - 08.


When is Low of the Year?

In the search for the Low-month of the year, here are the results:

Metals and index Low of the year

The table includes Silver, Gold, Platinum, DAX and Nasdaq100.

1 is January and 12 is December. 

2021: So far this year.


When is High of the Year?

In the search for the High-month of the year, here are the results:

High in metals and index

The table includes Silver, Gold, Platinum, DAX and Nasdaq100.

1 is January and 12 is December.

2021: So far this year.


Gold in week 39

Here is the overview of where Goldprices are at in the middle of week 39.

According to the chart the trend is down, and markets could easily see Gold continue to sell off from the current 1.737 level.


Metals after week 38

Gold, Silver and Platinum continue to perform poorly on a weekly basis.

Looking at the chart above where Gold, Silver and Platinum accounts for 33% each, the trend continues lower.

The latest week 38 bar, shows a lower low indicating continued weakness. In order to see strength in the metals space, investors should look for a renewed Blue bar on a weekly timescale to gain traction again.


Yearly high and lows

Throughout the year, how many days between yearly low and yearly high?

Here is an updated table of the duration between highs and lows and lows to highs in Calendardays. It does not tell when the highs and lows arrive, only duration between them. Updated 28.09.2021

Highs and Lows of the year 2001 - 2021

Over the last 20 years, the table shows that the average time between yearly high and yearly low is more than 200 calendardays (on average).

The last 10 years, the German DAX index and the US Nasdaq100 index have both reached its yearly high before its yearly low, every year but in 2018. Is there a change to this pattern in 2022 where the high of the year steps in first? 

This overview is a clear proof that trends lasts a while.



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