CHARTS AND COMMENTS

Nasdaq100 and DAX into April

The monthly chart below is showing the American Nasdaq100 and the European DAX indices. Both indices are equally weighted into the graph. It should represent where stockmarkets are currently trading.

The monthly pattern continue to create a lower low and a lower high. The Red bars indicate that markets are weak. For the chart to regain Blue strength stockmarkets need to collectively soar as much as 9% from their March closings. 


Ether or Bitcoin into April

The chart below is showing Ethereum over Bitcoin (following the note from March 13th).

After March, there is a lower low and a lower high on a monthly scale. The latest Red coloured bar is indicating weakness rather than strength. Moving higher is showing Ether outperforming Bitcoin. Moving lower showing Bitcoin outperforming Ether.


Metals into April

Gold, Silver and Platinum are equally weighted in the graph below. It should represent where metal markets are currently trading.

The monthly performance is showing a Blue bar indicating strength rather than weakness for Metals.


Ethereum and or Bitcoin in 2022

OK, holding Bitcoin and or Ethereum ?

YTD, both Crypto currencies have been dogs. Bitcoin is - 18%, and Ethereum is - 32%. The Bitcoin page and the Ethereum page covers them more in detail. 

This little note covers them both in a longer perspective through a Ratio. The Ratio is simply the price of Ethereum divided by the price of Bitcoin. Current status is expained through its monthly chart below.

Each bar equals one month of trading activity and represents the strength and weakness of either Ethereum or Bitcoin.

The chart above is a monthly Heikin Ashi chart with 5 squares, all marked in the month of January.

What happens after each January above?

There are two major observations, which are interesting to the chart;

One, every January follows a certain pattern over the next prolonged period of 12 months. This is essential in regards to the upcoming prices of both Ethereum and Bircoin. If ratio-prices rise, it favours Ethereum over Bitcoin. If ratio-prices fall, it favours Bitcoin over Ethereum.

Two, whenever there is a Blue (Red) bar, it is most likely followed by another Blue (Red) bar. If a Blue (Red) bar contains a higher low (lower high) it is a positive for next bar.  

February showed a Red bar, and looking weak for March. This latest monthly bar is an inside bar but it is Red and pressuring to the downside rather than the upside. 

The chart above is showing that;

From January 2018 through December 2018, Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum.

From January 2019 through December 2019, Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum.

From January 2020 through December 2020, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin.

From January 2021 through December 2021, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin.

From January 2022 through December 2022...

In conclusion, if history is to prevail according to the chart above, crypto markets will see Bitcoin outperform Ethereum throughout 2022. Only readings above 0.0815 will potentially change this view.

Always do your own research, please read disclaimer below.

"Why trade the ETH to BTC ratio? ... As a result, one of the most actively traded markets is the ETH/BTC ratio. Trading the ratio allows traders to stay 100% exposed to crypto while taking advantage of changes in ETH and BTC price whenever prices are not as correlated with each other" Source: Google.


Metals for March 2022

This graph is showing Metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum) equally weighted. Each bar is one month of trading activity.

According to the pic above, metal-prices are stronger. This is represented through the latest Blue bar. The latest monthly bar is showing a higher high and a higher low. The development is a positive for higher prices to come.

As long as these bars continues to stay Blue, the metal-markets will all toghether trend higher. 


NASDAQ100 AND DAX WEEK 8

The American Nasdaq100 index and the European DAX index are put toghether into this one graph to show the stockmarkets trend.

There is no doubt the current trend is weak. The markets in conjunction are -15.4% since its high in the beginning of Jaunary. It will continue to be so until markets see a blue bar in sight. In order to see this we must see markets soar as much as 5% from current levels. If there is a rebound into Blue territory, lets's reassess the next phase.


Metals markets - 5

Gold, Silver and Platinum have been quite strong the last 5 weeks.

The weekly chart above is showing strength for the precious metals over the last 5 weeks, but we could also say the last 9 weeks. Seasonality points to a turn down in week number 8 (to last about a month), so do not be suprised if metals stalls and take a breather for some time. Technical indicators do also favour a pause and you never know.

Technical indicators may at times stay in overbought and oversold conditions for much longer than you could imagine. As long as the weekly bars are Blue, markets perfer to buy up the metals.

The chart above is formulated into a diagram equally weighted for Gold, Silver and Platinum to more easily visualize what's going on. Read Disclaimer.


SEASONALITY FOR DAX AND NASDAQ100

The European DAX index, and the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index, do show common periods of strength and weakness throughout the year.

The picture below shows the common strong and weak periods for the two markets. Left side is January 1., and right side is December 31. The horizontal line is the timeline for 2022, and shows where markets are at right now. The strong and weak time periods range from 11 to 43 calendar days before changing course.

The Blue fields show both markets have a tendancy to stay strong, the Pink fields show both markets have a tendancy to stay weak.

Horizontal Green line is updated after this article ( as of Sunday March 6th. 2022 ).

According to seasonality, both markets are now trading in a common weak phase since January 26. (Dax at 15.450 and Nasdaq100 at 14.160). The present weak period could last until March 23. for now (36 more Calendar days).

The model is Pink if DAX and or Nasdaq100 is weak, and Blue if both the DAX and the Nasdaq100 are strong.

Always do your own research before entering into any market positions. 


NASDAQ100 AND DAX WEEK 7

So where are the stockmarkets at in Mid February of 2022?

For Europe, most investors look at the DAX index as a proxy for the market. In the USA and all over the world for that matter, the Nasdaq100 is a popular index. Putting both of them together into one graph is interesting because it could tell you more about the stockmarkets temperature in general.

At 14.600, the Nasdaq100 is -10.5% and at 15.400 the DAX -2.5% YTD. Putting them toghether, they now see weakness over the last 5 weeks.

On a weekly scale Nasdaq100 and the DAX see a lower low and a lower high. This favours lower prices to come. Bias to the upside would see higher highs and higher lows.

Until the indices are able to climb into creating a Blue bar, weakness will continue.

For updates on the indices and seasonality, see Nasdaq100 and DAX.


COFFEE, SUGAR AND COCOA WEEK 7

Half way into week 7 of 2022, here is how the Soft commodities of Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are developing.

One bar equals one week of trading activity. The overview shows the graph equally weighted between Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa. Since mid November last year, they are collectively + 13.5%.

The chart shows higher highs and higher lows on the weeky scale, indicating strength rather than weakness. The Softs are now trading at the level seen in February of 2020. Until markets see a Red bar on the weekly scale, the uptrend prevails.

For more updates and seasonality behaviour, see Coffee, Sugar, and Cocoa.

#coffee #sugar #cocoa #coffeeprices #sugarprices #cocoaprices #tradingcoffee #tradingsugar #tradingcocoa #coffeeseasonality #sugarseasonality #cocoaseasonality

 



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