CHARTS AND COMMENTS

Soft commodities week 25

Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are here defined as Soft Commodities. The graph below is showing all 3 commodities equally weighted on weekly basis, were each bar is counting as one tradingweek.

Collectively Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are trading as much as - 6.7% from their February closes. In other words in USD terms, today you get ahold of more Soft Commodities for the very same USD amount compared to what you did back in February. 

Inflation is defined as the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. Prices of Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa combined are still at their November 2021-levels. According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate in May was 8.6%, its highest level since 1981. In conclusion, Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are certainly not contributing to this inflation equation. At least not yet.

 

 


Metals pre Mond. Aug. 23

Gold, Silver and Platinum are presented in this weekly chart below.

As pointed out in the development for the metals, there is no strengthening signs going into next week. The general price trend for metals are still down rather than up. In this graph Gold, Silver and Platinum are weighted equally, and the view is derived into an Hekin Ashi chart from underlying weekly metals prices.


Precious Metals combined

To get an overview of the precious metal prices in general, here you got a weekly chart of Gold, Silver and Platinum combined weighting 1/3 of each component.

On a weekly basis, there is p.t. no indication that prices are to creep upwards yet. As far as this chart shows, it seems like lower- or at best sideways pricing, prevales for now.


Metals for Monday Aug. 02.

Below are the weekly charts for Silver, Gold, and Platinum updated pre this upcoming week starting Monday August 02.

Weekly overviews are good because it gives a broader perspective for the price trends than the day to day movements. Included in this post is also the weekly Gold to Silver Ratio, the Platinum to Gold ratio, and the Platinum to Silver ratio. This shows wider relationships and comparisons.

 

SILVER WEEKLY CHART

Silver made a lower low and a lower high last week. Bars are still red, and no indication of turning higher in this week to week picture.

 

GOLD WEEKLY CHART

Gold is trading sideways as for the visual view above. The chart shows last week with a slightly higher high and higher low, but without a 'clear' picture of where it is heading next. The chart could favour the upside but it is easy to be tricked as it is basically sideways for the last 4 weeks (not trending up or down). A break could happen either way. A hint is to stay patient until there is a direction.

 

PLATINUM WEEKLY CHART

Platinum shows a higher high and a lower low in this weekly chart above. According to the chart, there is no indication Platinum prices are moving higher on the weekly basis. Red bars means weak developments. So, as for next week markets will look out for the vulnerable 1.030 level which has been a base level to investors over the last 7 weeks. Experience shows that if this level is breached, be aware of a potential 'fake' break where prices bounces back. But for now, there seems to be no hurry for higher prices.

 

GOLD TO SILVER RATIO WEEKLY.

The chart shows how many OZ Silver you receive in exchange for 1 OZ Gold.

Gold prices are favoured over Silver, as the ratio is moving higher. On a weekly time frame the chart above shows a higher high and a higher low. There is a more clear picture of what is going in the ratio in the pic above, compared to the one layed out last week; In the pic above, each bar is formualted directly from their respective underlying already derived gold and silver prices.

 

PLATINUM TO GOLD RATIO WEEKLY

The chart shows how many OZ Gold you get in exchange for 1 OZ Platinum.

Until this past week, Platinum has acted much weaker relative to Gold since mid May. Markes needs to see the exchange between the tow above 0.62 in order to see Platinum starting to outperform Gold.

 

PLATINUM TO SILVER RATIO WEEKLY

The chart shows how many OZ Silver you take in exchange for 1 OZ platinum.

There has been very little movement for the exchange relationship between Platinum and Silver over the last 5 weeks. On a weekly basis the trend looks somewhat weak rather than strong. Last week printed a red bar. In order to move higher, markets could watch the 42.5 level for now.


Coffee note

A note is added to the Coffee section today.


SOFT SEASONALITY

Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa - Giving you the updated seasonal chart of the soft commodities. The dark line is so far in 2021. The red line represents the day to day movements throughout the year, - collectively over the last 15 years.

Each of them counts 1/3 each in this graph meaning they are equally weighted.

070621 - softs seasonality

Going forward it will be interesting to see how well this seasonal floor from May 24 will hold going into + - October 19th.

At times, partners and associates of intraday.se do carry positions in the commodities mentioned. If you choose to take part in the commodities space, make sure you always fully understand the risk involved trading these volatile assets. See Disclaimer.


METALS - SEASONALITY

As June is gradually becoming real summer in Europe, prepear for a potentially very strong move in Metals to arrive soon.

This seasonal chart shows how 2021 is evolving VS the yearly historical performance of the metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum). As you see, + - the 27th of June is a time turning point for the precious metals. The stronger period normally lasts into the fall, normally lasting about 74 calendar days. The waiting game has started in the PM sector. Remember that a seasonal move do happen to move counter trend wise, meaning a low (high) could act as a high (low). Therefore, keep always a proper stop loss in place.

070621 - metal seasonality

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.

  


The importance of time

Seldom you read or hear about how a certain intraday of the week could be more important to watch and trade than another.

Looking at this table below, you quickly see that some days are so called up-days and some days are down-days. Revealing the numbers behind the colors will probably shock you! There are extreme differences to the performance of certain intradays.

2019 DAILY

So far in 2019, if you are long the Nasdaq100 index going into Thursdays, you are most likely to see the index fall significantly through that day. The very same is true for metals, where Thursdays are clearly the worst performing day of the week for both the Gold and the Silver.

If you would like to see the actual numbers behind the Reds and the Blues, simply send an email to intraday@intraday.no and the answers will be received for free.

Happy trading week, and make sure to stay up to date by following intraday.se at Instragram with the address @intraday.se


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