CHARTS AND COMMENTS

Metals after week 38

Gold, Silver and Platinum continue to perform poorly on a weekly basis.

Looking at the chart above where Gold, Silver and Platinum accounts for 33% each, the trend continues lower.

The latest week 38 bar, shows a lower low indicating continued weakness. In order to see strength in the metals space, investors should look for a renewed Blue bar on a weekly timescale to gain traction again.


Yearly high and lows

Throughout the year, how many days between yearly low and yearly high?

Here is an updated table of the duration between highs and lows and lows to highs in Calendardays. It does not tell when the highs and lows arrive, only duration between them. Updated 28.09.2021

Highs and Lows of the year 2001 - 2021

Over the last 20 years, the table shows that the average time between yearly high and yearly low is more than 200 calendardays (on average).

The last 10 years, the German DAX index and the US Nasdaq100 index have both reached its yearly high before its yearly low, every year but in 2018. Is there a change to this pattern in 2022 where the high of the year steps in first? 

This overview is a clear proof that trends lasts a while.


Metals for week 38, 2021

Precious Metals contine to trade lower giving Metal Bulls a prolonged headache. The latest seasonality trend did not work out for higher prices, and 2 weeks ago started a seasonal weaker period.

According to the weekly chart above where Gold, Silver and Platinum is equally weighted the overall trend continues sideways to south. Last week traded down through technical support levels for all 3.

As long as the bars are red, there is a weakening performance to the developments going forward. The very last bar shows a lower high and a lower low and thereby no sign of pushing higher (for now).


Gold outperforming Silver?

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver.  See the weekly chart below as presented by Gold divided by Silver. And the higher it goes the more Silver is needed to convert it into that very 1 OZ Gold.

According to the weekly price pattern for OZ Gold into OZ Silver, the trend keeps its upward momentum favoring the yellow metal for now. The clear blue bars will distroy the uptrend if markets see the ratio below the 74-level.

More: An historical guide to the Gold-Silver Ratio, by JB Maverick at Investopedia here.


NO GO for the Silverbulls?

Is there a NO GO for the Silverbulls? - When is Yearly lowpoint and Yearly highpoint for Silver prices?

The overview above shows the year high- and low points for Silver prices for each of the last 20 years.

Silver high in 2021 happened within the first two weeks of the year. Low was marked August 20th, 231 calendardays into the year. Interestingly, the year 2007 had a low about the same time of the year (see Red bar in 2007), but then a year-high (see Blue bar in 2007) in the beginning of November.  In order for this to happen this year, Silver needs to trade significantly higher very soon, and also go against the seasonal pattern which is down at the moment. The graph shows that Red bars above the 'horizontal 231 line' also shows a Blue bar quite early in the year. The bars above 'the 231 line' lasts 254 to 326 calendardays into the year...

The conclusion to this overview is that history could show there might be even lower Silver prices to come from the present 23.75 level - unless something happens very very soon.  

Trading the volatile Silver, make sure there is always a proper stop loss in place. 


Metals into week 36, 2021

Metals are stronger through week 35.

This graph above is equally weighted for Gold, Silver and Platinum, showing strength last week represented in a blue bar.

Gold vs Silver:

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver in the weekly perspective.

Nasdaq100 vs Gold:

 And the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index continues to outpace the price of Gold.


Gold Silver ratio pre Monday 30th Aug., 2021

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver.

The weekly low is USD 1.2 higher at the end of week 34 compared to week 33.


Jackson Hole 2021, Gold & Silver

Gold could outperform Nasdaq100 over the Jackson Hole event (see last post below).

But, what about Silver up against Gold?

Silver actually outperforms and holds up better than Gold through the latest 20 Jackson Hole Summits.

The chart above shows how Gold and Silver prices performs from the 1. speach day (this year tomorrow Friday 27th of Aug. to the 6. day post the Summit (this year to next Friday the 3rd. of September. The average development for Gold through this period is + 0.8%, and for Silver + 1.9%. Making this exact trade the last 20 years has accumulated + 15% for Gold, and + 38% for Silver !

Read Disclaimer down below before attempting to make the very same trades. History do not exactly repeat even though it could be a guide.

Saturday Sept. 4th, 2021: This week above Gold + 0.5% and Silver + 2.5%.


Monthly changes

Ever wondering how a particular asset is doing through a certain month?

There is now a monthly performance view for each and every month from 2001 - present in:

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.

The monthly changes table is located below the indicators on the respective sites.

 


Metals pre Mond. Aug. 23

Gold, Silver and Platinum are presented in this weekly chart below.

As pointed out in the development for the metals, there is no strengthening signs going into next week. The general price trend for metals are still down rather than up. In this graph Gold, Silver and Platinum are weighted equally, and the view is derived into an Hekin Ashi chart from underlying weekly metals prices.



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