CHARTS AND COMMENTS

Metals into week 40

After week 39, metals are still havy with the attempt to go somewhat higher towards the end of the week.

The graph above consists of Gold, Silver and Platinum weighted 1/3 each. To get a clearer picture of the actual trend, the derived candle chart (Heikin Ashi) shows prices are still trading lower on a weekly timescale.

The low for the week was actually higher than prior week and similar to the week before. This could indicate some type of floor to the precious metals prices for now.

In order to be more confident in a potential renewed uptrend to come, markets should make a nice blue weekly bar this upcoming week # 40, October 04 - 08.


When is Low of the Year?

In the search for the Low-month of the year, here are the results:

Metals and index Low of the year

The table includes Silver, Gold, Platinum, DAX and Nasdaq100.

1 is January and 12 is December. 

2021: So far this year.


When is High of the Year?

In the search for the High-month of the year, here are the results:

High in metals and index

The table includes Silver, Gold, Platinum, DAX and Nasdaq100.

1 is January and 12 is December.

2021: So far this year.


Gold in week 39

Here is the overview of where Goldprices are at in the middle of week 39.

According to the chart the trend is down, and markets could easily see Gold continue to sell off from the current 1.737 level.


Metals after week 38

Gold, Silver and Platinum continue to perform poorly on a weekly basis.

Looking at the chart above where Gold, Silver and Platinum accounts for 33% each, the trend continues lower.

The latest week 38 bar, shows a lower low indicating continued weakness. In order to see strength in the metals space, investors should look for a renewed Blue bar on a weekly timescale to gain traction again.


Yearly high and lows

Throughout the year, how many days between yearly low and yearly high?

Here is an updated table of the duration between highs and lows and lows to highs in Calendardays. It does not tell when the highs and lows arrive, only duration between them. Updated 28.09.2021

Highs and Lows of the year 2001 - 2021

Over the last 20 years, the table shows that the average time between yearly high and yearly low is more than 200 calendardays (on average).

The last 10 years, the German DAX index and the US Nasdaq100 index have both reached its yearly high before its yearly low, every year but in 2018. Is there a change to this pattern in 2022 where the high of the year steps in first? 

This overview is a clear proof that trends lasts a while.


Metals for week 38, 2021

Precious Metals contine to trade lower giving Metal Bulls a prolonged headache. The latest seasonality trend did not work out for higher prices, and 2 weeks ago started a seasonal weaker period.

According to the weekly chart above where Gold, Silver and Platinum is equally weighted the overall trend continues sideways to south. Last week traded down through technical support levels for all 3.

As long as the bars are red, there is a weakening performance to the developments going forward. The very last bar shows a lower high and a lower low and thereby no sign of pushing higher (for now).


Gold outperforming Silver?

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver.  See the weekly chart below as presented by Gold divided by Silver. And the higher it goes the more Silver is needed to convert it into that very 1 OZ Gold.

According to the weekly price pattern for OZ Gold into OZ Silver, the trend keeps its upward momentum favoring the yellow metal for now. The clear blue bars will distroy the uptrend if markets see the ratio below the 74-level.

More: An historical guide to the Gold-Silver Ratio, by JB Maverick at Investopedia here.


Metals into week 36, 2021

Metals are stronger through week 35.

This graph above is equally weighted for Gold, Silver and Platinum, showing strength last week represented in a blue bar.

Gold vs Silver:

Gold continues to hold up better than Silver in the weekly perspective.

Nasdaq100 vs Gold:

 And the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index continues to outpace the price of Gold.


The Following week

Now as the Jackson Hole summit is past, what are markets doing?

A look at Nasadq100 and Gold over the last 20 years, shows that the technology weighted Nasdaq100 index has underperformed the price of Gold the next 5 tradingsessions.

Here is how Gold and Nasdaq100 index has performed every year the following the summit.

Gold (ave. + 0.1%) holds up better than Nasdaq100 (ave. - 0.7%). Last year, both fell 1.6 and 1.7%.

Different topics are discussed each year in Jackson Hole, and markets are contiously at different stages, but these are the true results no matter what.

Saturday Sept. 4th, 2021: This week above Gold + 0.5% and Nasdaq100 + 1.5%.



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