CHARTS AND COMMENTS

Soft commodities week 25

Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are here defined as Soft Commodities. The graph below is showing all 3 commodities equally weighted on weekly basis, were each bar is counting as one tradingweek.

Collectively Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are trading as much as - 6.7% from their February closes. In other words in USD terms, today you get ahold of more Soft Commodities for the very same USD amount compared to what you did back in February. 

Inflation is defined as the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. Prices of Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa combined are still at their November 2021-levels. According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate in May was 8.6%, its highest level since 1981. In conclusion, Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are certainly not contributing to this inflation equation. At least not yet.

 

 


Gold or Silver week 25

The Gold Silver Ratio is marginally higher after week 24, making a higher low and a higher high.

According to the weekly chart above, Gold is holding up better than Silver on a weekly scale going into week 25. Gold is clearly outperforming Silver as long as the bars are Blue (marked by their higher lows). Seeing the ratio fall below USD 83 again, could quickly turn biased on Silver.


Stockmarkets in June

Here is the monthly chart combining the DAX and the Nasdaq100 indices.

There are now 5 months of lower highs on a monthly scale. YTD, the two indices are collectively - 16%.

The latest May bar is Red and still indicating weakness. As long as there is a lower low and a lower high on a monthly scale, weakness is prevailing for the longer term. From June 1st close, there is more than + 4% to the latest bar top. Only getting above this point could revalue current bearish stand.


Ether or Bitcoin in June

The chart below is continuing the chart from April 1st: Ethereum ( - 30.4% in May) over Bitcoin ( - 17.2% in May) or the price of Ethereum divided by the price of Bitcoin.

The monthly overview is again showing a downward pressure to this chart. The lower low and lower high for the latest bar is weakness for Ethereum vs Bitcoin. As long as prices are trending lower, Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum. That is not to say both could fall, and Bitcoin is falling less- or hold up better than Ethereum.


Metals into June 2022

There is weakness in the metals space on a monthly scale. This is following the seasonality patterns for now. The chart below is consisting of Gold, Silver and Platinum equally weighted.

As markets are soon entering the summer, the monthly chart is showing a new lower low with a lower high. According to the chart above, Metals as a whole must soar + 7.5% or more from June entry, in order to potentially change the current weak picture. 


GOLD VS SILVER INTO WEEK 18

As this weekly chart is pointing out, Gold is stronger than Silver on a weekly scale.

The latest Blue bar is making a higher high and a higher low indicating more support to Gold prices than of the Silver prices.

As long as this graph is showing higher prices, Gold is performing stronger relative to Silver.


NASDAQ100 & DAX INTO WEEK 17.

Continuing the Nasdaq100+DAX story. The weekly chart for the combined markets is shown below.

As there again is a lower low and a lower high in the weekly chart, markets are showing continued weakness (and no strength) going forward.

Latest In depth on Nasdaq100 index.

Latest in depth on DAX index


Nasadaq100 and Dax into week 16.

Below, you find Nasdaq100 and DAX set toghether.

As pointed out last week, if this week was weak the resumption of the downtrend could find its way lower.

The chart is now showing a lower low and a lower high, indicating weakness for markets. Only a 5% gain could possibly jeoperdize the downtrend from the first week of January.

Latest In depth on Nasdaq100 index.

Latest in depth on DAX index


NASDAQ100 & DAX INTO WEEK 15.

STAY ALERT!

The weekly chart below,

shows the American Nasdaq100 index and the European DAX index put togheter in one graph.

The lastest weekly bar is showing a lower high and an equally lowpoint from the week before.

Upcoming weakness could prove current upswing in markets to be "fake", for then to see the longer term downtrend from beginning of January to resume. 

In depth Nasdaq100 index.

In depth DAX index


COFFEE, SUGAR AND COCOA IN APRIL 2022

COFFEE SUGAR AND COCOA WITH ZERO INFLATION

After the first week of trading in April of 2022 commodity markets see Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa collectively sideways over the past 4 weeks. Since the beginning of the year they are + 3.9%. To regain the February top, markets need to soar + 8.5%. 

Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa are collectively also trading lower than February 2020, November 2020, and October 2021.

As you see from the chart, there is still zero inflation to these commodities prices. For now the three soft 's are trading horisontal, not up, not down.

In depth Coffee.

In depth Sugar.

In depth Cocoa.



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