VOLATILITY

RANGE  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 06.10 00.20 022 030 00.70 00.06 012 00.14
2 HRS. 03.00 00.06 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 04.30 00.09 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 05.70 00.12 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 12.20 00.25 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 26.50 00.53 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

30 min row is updated as of 02. Sep .2020 Intraday-price-moves for certain timeframes (showing 'volatility' or range expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 that day, then it's less likely to move much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., expect USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Always be happy to acheive gains equal to the specified time-range. The table is also useful for stop-loss distances.

CHARTS AND OR COMMENTS

Precious Metals combined

To get an overview of the precious metal prices in general, here you got a weekly chart of Gold, Silver and Platinum combined weighting 1/3 of each component.

On a weekly basis, there is p.t. no indication that prices are to creep upwards yet. As far as this chart shows, it seems like lower- or at best sideways pricing, prevales for now.


Metals for Monday Aug. 02.

Below are the weekly charts for Silver, Gold, and Platinum updated pre this upcoming week starting Monday August 02.

Weekly overviews are good because it gives a broader perspective for the price trends than the day to day movements. Included in this post is also the weekly Gold to Silver Ratio, the Platinum to Gold ratio, and the Platinum to Silver ratio. This shows wider relationships and comparisons.

 

SILVER WEEKLY CHART

Silver made a lower low and a lower high last week. Bars are still red, and no indication of turning higher in this week to week picture.

 

GOLD WEEKLY CHART

Gold is trading sideways as for the visual view above. The chart shows last week with a slightly higher high and higher low, but without a 'clear' picture of where it is heading next. The chart could favour the upside but it is easy to be tricked as it is basically sideways for the last 4 weeks (not trending up or down). A break could happen either way. A hint is to stay patient until there is a direction.

 

PLATINUM WEEKLY CHART

Platinum shows a higher high and a lower low in this weekly chart above. According to the chart, there is no indication Platinum prices are moving higher on the weekly basis. Red bars means weak developments. So, as for next week markets will look out for the vulnerable 1.030 level which has been a base level to investors over the last 7 weeks. Experience shows that if this level is breached, be aware of a potential 'fake' break where prices bounces back. But for now, there seems to be no hurry for higher prices.

 

GOLD TO SILVER RATIO WEEKLY.

The chart shows how many OZ Silver you receive in exchange for 1 OZ Gold.

Gold prices are favoured over Silver, as the ratio is moving higher. On a weekly time frame the chart above shows a higher high and a higher low. There is a more clear picture of what is going in the ratio in the pic above, compared to the one layed out last week; In the pic above, each bar is formualted directly from their respective underlying already derived gold and silver prices.

 

PLATINUM TO GOLD RATIO WEEKLY

The chart shows how many OZ Gold you get in exchange for 1 OZ Platinum.

Until this past week, Platinum has acted much weaker relative to Gold since mid May. Markes needs to see the exchange between the tow above 0.62 in order to see Platinum starting to outperform Gold.

 

PLATINUM TO SILVER RATIO WEEKLY

The chart shows how many OZ Silver you take in exchange for 1 OZ platinum.

There has been very little movement for the exchange relationship between Platinum and Silver over the last 5 weeks. On a weekly basis the trend looks somewhat weak rather than strong. Last week printed a red bar. In order to move higher, markets could watch the 42.5 level for now.


Markets Thursday July 29.

All sections are updated pre US openings for Thursday 29th of July 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


Tuesday 27th of July.

All sections are updated pre US openings for Tuesday the 27th of July 2021.

GoldSilverCoffeeSugarCocoaNasdaq100DAXBitcoinLumber and Platinum.


PLATINUM MONDAY JULY 26.

Together with Gold and Silver, Platinum prices are acting heavy these days. The precious metal should historically trade higher from end of June into August or September, but the chart below shows weakness rather than strength. 

Trades above 1109, which is the latest bar high in the chart above, could be the first indication in the weekly chart, for higher prices to come.

 


PLATINUM WEEKLY

Is there enough strength in the current Platinum markets to push prices higher or lower?

The answer might be in this chart below as it is easy to get caught up in the noice.

The chart below is showing the weekly performance for Platinum prices through Friday the 16th of July. The graph is derived from weekly price changes. Week open, week low, week high and week close.


Pre US Open for Silver, Gold and Platinum

Just pre US stock markets openings Monday, the metals are getting stronger. As this happens, the chart below seems to become more reliable.

The chart is consisting of an equal weight for Silver, Gold and Platinum. As markets are getting closer to mid July, metals are now building their higher and higher lows. This update above is post Friday's closing prices. Seasonality wise presious metals are on the "very correct" path. The green line shows metals development of pervious years.

If jumping on the ban wagon, make always sure to keep appropriate stop losses in place, at all times to make sure you minimize potential losses. Simulatneously, keep the daily volatility in mind and remember that historical performance is no guarantee for future returns.


Metals double bottom

Below is 2021's performances for the precious metals (Gold, Silver, and Platinum) vs the last 5 years. According to the past, the next 40 calendar days seems quite interesting.

Putting Gold, Silver and Platinum together in one graph gives us the pic below.

A double bottom to a slightly higher low the 29th of June, is our latest turningpoint and reference point so far.

If markets proves that our history is a true marketmap, the very next 67 calendar days could lead to higher precious metals prices. This graph is formulated out of the last 15 years (not equally weighted). 


Platinum pre Monday 28th of June

 

Platinum happened to see the seasonal low levels over the weekend. It could correspond to what you observe in our chart below. The low may have been set in a few days early this year if daily prices are moving higher from here.

According to seasonalities, Platinum could stay strong over the next 6 - 8 weeks. Depending on the investment style do always keep an appropriate stop loss in case a trade turns south. 

Positive intraday's for Platinum moves around + 2%, and negative moves could easily slip - 3%. This past week may have proven a turnaround by looking at the day to day moves in addition to the seasonality pic above.

The chart above indicates a positive move is in the making. The blue line is the price and is put together with a formulated MACD indicator to show streth and weakness.

The above indicator is derived from RSI levels now signaling strength rather than weakness.

Read more about investment supply and demand for Platinum here.

 

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Platinum Spot and Futures contracts. The charts above, are only historical prices and indicators to see  how Platinum has evolved in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.


Precious metals June 22.

Gold, Silver and Platinum have all taken a beating lately, espesially this last week. Bringing up this chart now, because we are getting closer and closer to the major seasonal low in metals. According to long term studies of seasonal cycles, the upcoming weeks should benefit from owning precious metals. As they have been falling and falling, it is diffifult to now trust a sudden turnaround within a few days. But one thing is for sure, seasonal player are probably stepping in try to buy these days because of the trust in their trading system.

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.


Seasonal low in Metals

The seasonal chart below compares the price development for Gold, Silver and Platinum in US dollars in 2021 against earlier years. The chart is freshly updated since the last post 7th of June.

As you see, there is now + - 11 calendar days to the historical seasonal low for metals. Looking to technical indicators, there are no strong factors in place for a turn up yet. There was a weak close yesterday in conjunction to the latest US Federal Reserve press release. It is certainly interesting to follow how the prices develop going into the latter stage of next week. 

170621 - METALS SEASONALITY

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.


METALS - SEASONALITY

As June is gradually becoming real summer in Europe, prepear for a potentially very strong move in Metals to arrive soon.

This seasonal chart shows how 2021 is evolving VS the yearly historical performance of the metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum). As you see, + - the 27th of June is a time turning point for the precious metals. The stronger period normally lasts into the fall, normally lasting about 74 calendar days. The waiting game has started in the PM sector. Remember that a seasonal move do happen to move counter trend wise, meaning a low (high) could act as a high (low). Therefore, keep always a proper stop loss in place.

070621 - metal seasonality

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.

  


Platinum vs Nasdaq100

Is it time for the rare white metal (Platinum) to outperform the technology weighted Nasdaq100?

 

020621 - PLATINUM VS NASDAQ100

The pic above shows an attempt for the Platinum Nasdaq100 index ratio to move higher from a higher low-level than its all-time-low in November of last year. The MACD indicator is now showing a higher bar than yesterday and the day before, giving support to the textbook for higher prices to come.

For this price-graph to move higher (lower) we need to see Platinum outperform (underperform) the Nasdaq100 index.

Partners and associates to Intraday.se may at times have positions in both instruments. 


Platinum Friday 28. May

Platinum is not convincing to the upside quite yet. Consolidation just below the USD 1.200 mark after a couple of weeks above. The MACD level needs to pick up steam in order to sound interesting for the long traders.

280521 - Plat MACD

Seasonality plays against an upmove over the next few weeks.


Gold on track

The Goldprice is holding up with its roadmap from earlier years. In order to continue on this path, markets needs to keep off / stay above last weeks low @ 1.306.

180219 - GOLD ROADMAP

The upcoming seasonal top finds place next Monday February 25th plus minus one tradingday. Only time will show if this proves correct this time around.

At the same time, it is interesting to take a look at the price of Platinum to Gold. The rear metal has continued to see weakness and the relative strength to Gold is actually - 15.6% since November 8th. At that time, gold traded at 1.223,5.

Since 1970, Platinum is currently seeing a value which is - 56% lower than its average relative price to Gold. A ratio this low has never been observed during the analyzed period. This is telling us that Platinum may be dirt cheap at current levels from an historial perspective. 

180219 - PLATINUM GOLD RATIO DAILY

The Red solid line in the graph above, is a 50 day moving average which is now + 3.9% above the closing this passed Friday.

If or rather when markets see Platinum to Gold above this Red solid line, it could be a first and clearer sign that the price of Platinum could be entering a period where it will outperform Gold, or that markets wish to prefer having Platinum over Gold.

To put preent state into perspective - Gold is now trading USD 97.5 above its November price, and Platinum is trading USD 63,5 lower than its November price.

Only time will show when markets wants this equilibrium to level out..

 


Trading ranges

030119 - tradingrange table percent

Its moving up, its moving down, but how much is it actually moving within a certain timeframe?

Trading ranges are important because they tell you how much your trade or investment may move within a certain timeframe. Many traders use trading ranges as an effecient parameter to place stop loss - and take profit orders.

The table above shows how much Euro to USD, Gold- and Silver prices, the Dax index, Platinum, the Nasdaq100 index, Sugar-, Coffee-, Cocoa-, and Oil prices and Bitcoin moves within set timeframes. The currency pair Euro to USD, Gold- and Silver prices moves the least, as Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Oilprices and Bitcoin makes the most and solid price moves.

The table shows the average trading range of the last 1.000 bars for its timewindow.'1 DAY and 1 WEEK' shows the daily and weekly trading ranges for 2018.

30 MIN more than 0.5%: Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

2 HRS more than 1%: Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

4 HRS more than 1.5%: Cocoa and Bitcoin.

6 HRS more than 2%: Bitcoin.

1 DAY more than 2%: Nasdaq100 index, Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

1 WEEK more than 5%: Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

 


Markets tops as of Tuesday 30th Oct.

Nasdaq100 continues its weakness from Oct 1st, and is now down 11.2% since the recent peak. The table below shows how the present trading-level unfolds compared to the 2007 and 2000 peaks.

NASDAQ100 VS XAG TABLE

Markets are now 21 intradays post its very Nasdaq100 top. This table outlines performance through next Friday (29 tradingdays post its respective daily peaks). The table overview could now paint a consolidation fase over the coming 9 intradays for the index, and somewhat stronger Silver prices going into next Friday.

This next chart shows the development for both Nasdaq100 index and price of Silver for 46 intradays post the 2000, 2007 and 2018 peaks.

NASDAQ100 TOPS VS SILVER 2000 2007 2018

This last chart compares 1987 for DJIA vs Nasdaq100 in 2000, 2007 and 2018.

MARKETS XX

The red vertical line is placed at November 14th 2018, and the chart displays 100 tradingdays post respective peaks. Only time will show if history is a trading map.


Platinum Gold Ratio

As markets see Gold and Silver move strongly to the upside yesterday, here is the daily development of Platinum to Gold. Its lowpoint, since at least the 1990's, was this July and retested Friday 07. Sept at 0.65.

The ratio is now attempting to technically break to the upside of the horizontal resistance line. Longer term, holding some Platinum over Gold could be an interresting play? 

PLATGOLDRATIO 


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