trading ranges - high to low and low to high

RANGE  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 06.10 00.20 022 030 00.70 00.06 012 00.14
2 HRS. 03.00 00.06 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 04.30 00.09 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 05.70 00.12 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 12.20 00.25 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 26.50 00.53 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

30 min row is updated as of 02. Sep .2020 Intraday-price-moves for certain timeframes (showing 'volatility' or range expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 that day, then it's less likely to move much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., expect USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Always be happy to acheive gains equal to the specified time-range. The table is also useful for stop-loss distances.

chart and comment

Pre Tuesday 22nd open..

....Click on the assets sections - they are all updated.


Mid day Monday 21st of June

Sugar, Cocoa, Nasdaq100 and DAX sections are updated as of now.


Updated pre Monday 21st of June

Gold, Silver and Coffee sections are updated now pre Monday 21st of June.


Seasonal low in Metals

The seasonal chart below compares the price development for Gold, Silver and Platinum in US dollars in 2021 against earlier years. The chart is freshly updated since the last post 7th of June.

As you see, there is now + - 11 calendar days to the historical seasonal low for metals. Looking to technical indicators, there are no strong factors in place for a turn up yet. There was a weak close yesterday in conjunction to the latest US Federal Reserve press release. It is certainly interesting to follow how the prices develop going into the latter stage of next week. 

170621 - METALS SEASONALITY

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.


Silver ahead of June 15th

Silver is updated after Monday close in detail here.


Coffee note

A note is added to the Coffee section today.


SOFT SEASONALITY

Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa - Giving you the updated seasonal chart of the soft commodities. The dark line is so far in 2021. The red line represents the day to day movements throughout the year, - collectively over the last 15 years.

Each of them counts 1/3 each in this graph meaning they are equally weighted.

070621 - softs seasonality

Going forward it will be interesting to see how well this seasonal floor from May 24 will hold going into + - October 19th.

At times, partners and associates of intraday.se do carry positions in the commodities mentioned. If you choose to take part in the commodities space, make sure you always fully understand the risk involved trading these volatile assets. See Disclaimer.


METALS - SEASONALITY

As June is gradually becoming real summer in Europe, prepear for a potentially very strong move in Metals to arrive soon.

This seasonal chart shows how 2021 is evolving VS the yearly historical performance of the metals (Gold, Silver and Platinum). As you see, + - the 27th of June is a time turning point for the precious metals. The stronger period normally lasts into the fall, normally lasting about 74 calendar days. The waiting game has started in the PM sector. Remember that a seasonal move do happen to move counter trend wise, meaning a low (high) could act as a high (low). Therefore, keep always a proper stop loss in place.

070621 - metal seasonality

From time to time, partners and associates of intraday.se do keep positions in Gold, Silver and Platinum. The pic above, is only an historical guide to how prices have evolved throughout the year in the past, and is not intended as any type of financial advice. See our disclamer.

  


DAX INDEX DAY BY DAY (last 5 yrs)

Revealing the day to day numbers of the German DAX index.

The accumulated performance of each day from the last 5 years is shown in this table. 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

The table will give you the overview of how the index really did throughout the last years. This does not mean the same dates will do the excact same this year or next, but maybe it could give you an indication of what could be coming. At least, have it in the back of your mind. The very upcoming week (7. - 11. of June) has shown sluggish performance. Maybe its all different this year?

060621 - DAX INTRADAY PERFORMANCE 5 yrs

 


Platinum vs Nasdaq100

Is it time for the rare white metal (Platinum) to outperform the technology weighted Nasdaq100?

 

020621 - PLATINUM VS NASDAQ100

The pic above shows an attempt for the Platinum Nasdaq100 index ratio to move higher from a higher low-level than its all-time-low in November of last year. The MACD indicator is now showing a higher bar than yesterday and the day before, giving support to the textbook for higher prices to come.

For this price-graph to move higher (lower) we need to see Platinum outperform (underperform) the Nasdaq100 index.

Partners and associates to Intraday.se may at times have positions in both instruments. 


BITCOIN DAY BY DAY (last 5 years)

This is an overview of the daily performance in Bitcoin day by day accumulated for the last 5 years: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. 

020621 - BITCOIN DAY BY DAY

Looking at the table, you see the one pattern which stands out - one positive day (acc 5 yrs) is usually followed up by another positive day. The same for a negative day. When having a negative day (acc 5 yrs), it is likely to see the next day as a negative as well.


GOLD DAY BY DAY (last 5 yrs)

Here you got the daily performance of the Goldprice day by day accumulated for the last 5 years: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020.

310521 - GOLD DAY BY DAY

 


Platinum Friday 28. May

Platinum is not convincing to the upside quite yet. Consolidation just below the USD 1.200 mark after a couple of weeks above. The MACD level needs to pick up steam in order to sound interesting for the long traders.

280521 - Plat MACD

Seasonality plays against an upmove over the next few weeks.


MACD Example New Gold Inc

After Fridays close (today), here you got a great example of how well a MACD indicator can work for you.

This shorter term pic of New Gold Inc demonstrates how a higher MACD bar signals strength to the prices (a lower MACD bar signals weakness to the prices). Only by following the MACD development higher or lower mabe you will have a good grab of what's next?   :-)

After a prolonged period in one direction, MACD levels and prices will most likely correct for a shorter or longer period.

280521 - New Gold MACD daily

We strive to keep our content from a natural perspective at all times. Assosiates or parters to Intraday.se do own shares in New Gold Inc.


Gold at close Wednesday 260521

Goldprice is clearly strong these days, but stalling at the 1.900-level for now. The MACD-level has been strong the last USD 200 and could easily deserve a pause.

Seasonality for Gold points to a lowpoint around the turn of this month. A slide in the price of Gold could be seen by many as a buying oppertunity for the summer to be held into September. 

270521 - XAUUSD AT CLOSE WEDNESDAY


Silver at close Wednesday 260521

Silver could be toppish shorter term after yesterdays weak close. MACD is pointing lower again.

270521 - XAGUSD AT CLOSE WEDNESDAY


Nasdaq100 shorter term

Nasdaq100 is still off its all-time-highs in April, and is well up from mid-May lows.

No short term sign of weakness after Tuesday's close. A lower MACD bar will "confirm" weakness and potential renewed sell-off.

260521 - nasdaq100 after close tuesday


Silver prices

Silverprices looked to close relatively much weaker than Platinum and Gold Tuesday, but turned around and up as the US markets opened. Thereafter ticking and ticking steadily towards USD 28 throughout the session.

260521 - XAG AFTER CLOSE TUESDAY


From a lagging to a leading indicator - MACD

There is a jungle of technical indicators to add to you favorite instrument, and that you want to update along the price changes.

The one indicator that continously stands out of them all, is the MACD indicator. The MACD gives you an exact feel of a trend - stronger or weaker. There are several ways to analyse its patterns, but primarly you will be looking for a higher bar for stronger prices or a lower bar for lower prices.

Yes, MACD is a rules as a lagging indicator, but by plotting the unknown next  potential price (higher of lower than our last real price), you suddenly have a super leading indicator. 

See the example below.

This first pic shows you the price of Silver after last real closing price at 27.50.

The last 5 market-closes sees a lower MACD meaning that the gap between the 26 and the 12 period moving average is getting larger and that prices are likely to continue lower until we see the oposite.

230521 - xag present MACD

The next pic shows you what silver will look like if tomorrows price closes at 28.0. Thereby the MACD gives you a higher bar, which is a positive for higher silver prices to come (becuase it increases the odds of again seeing a higher bar the day after tomorrow).

230521 - xag at 28 MACD

The next pic shows you a hypotetical weaker close at 27.3. This means a continuously lower MACD and further weakness for the price at the next close. Try it out!

230521 - xag at 27.3 MACD


Gold going into the weekend

Gold could very well look toppish in the shorter time-frame.

Here are three charts of the daily price of Gold in USD.

The first one is after close yesterday, Thursday 20.05.21, and the other two are potential outcomes if it close at 1.860, or at 1.895 today Friday 21.0521.

This is all about getting your  picture clear ofr what Gold could look like heading into next week.

210521 - XAU AS OF CLOSE THURSDAY 200521

210521 - XAU IF CLOSE @ 1860 FRIDAY 210521

210521 - XAU IF CLOSE @ 1895 FRIDAY 210521

As you see, there is a great difference between the two outcomes for Friday. If Gold markets close around 1.860 or below, it will look bearish or halting to the price going into next week.

On the other hand, if it closes Friday around 1.890 or above, it could seem that an extreme strenght is coming into play. The extreme is taken from the MACD indicator in Blue / Red, in which gives the divergence between the 26 and 12 period moving averages. The greater the gap between the two moving averages, the more strength there is in the MACD and the higher the reading. nPresent state of the MACD reading is USD 24.7, and it has been trending steadily up since 08.03.21 where it turned around from - 31.9.

Looking to the seasonal for Gold, the metal meets its seasonal low at the end of May. A time-period in which Gold historically see a low price point.



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