trading ranges - high to low or low to high

RANGE  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 01.45 00.03 023 027 00.70 00.07 014 00.30 
2 HRS. 03.00 00.06 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 04.30 00.09 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 05.70 00.12 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 12.20 00.25 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 26.50 00.53 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

Intraday-price-moves for dedicated timeframes (showing the 'volatility' expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 for the day, then it is less likely Gold will stretch much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., do expect a USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Be happy to acheive intraday gains equal to a specified range. Numbers also to be used towards stop loss ranges.

intraday chart and comment

Nasdaq100 Peaks vs Silver

This chart displays how the Nasdaq100 index and Silver performs these days - compared to the Nasdaq100 peak in 2000 and 2007. This story continues as a followup few intradays after the very top this year October 1st.

The Nasdaq100 index is presently down 10% from its peak, and looks to find a temp. bottom quite soon (if comparing the peaks of 2000 and 2007), to trade sideways before heading further south again. Markets are dynamic, and only time will show if history is 'repeatable'.

NASDAQ100 PEAK VS SILVER

Silver is holding up strong and the question is - if it could start a new uptrend withing the next 15 intraday sessions as in 2007? See chart below.

SILVER NOW VS SILVER IN 2007

 


Coffee Monday 29. & Tuesday 30.

Coffee prices have been strong lately, after testing its summer-lows of 2006 in September.

Here is how the Coffee behaves the last few weeks (total):

COFFEE PRICES LAST 5 WEEKS

Monday has definitly produced the weakest intraday results of the week, and Friday the really strongest.

Looking to the upcoming tradingweek, the chart below displays a mapped pattern for Monday and Tuesday based on intraday data.

COFFEE INTRADAY MAPPED MOND 29TH AND TUESD 30TH

Viewing the 10 minute bar chart above, Monday the 29th seems to be a sideways to down day. Tuesday the 30th around 11:10 CEST looks to be the first interresting timewindow to watch in conjunction to the last tradinghour later in the day. Only time will show how this map turns up against upcoming actual coffee prices.

..and here are the actual traded coffee contracts below.

COFFEE INTRADAY ACTUAL MOND 29TH AND TUESD 30TH

This shows the importance of the two timewindow for Coffee.  Short position entry @ 14:10 Monday and exited @ 11:00 Tuesday counted as a 5% move. Looking back, it is valuable to see how the prior Mondays behaved (see daily coffee price table above)


Sugar prices Thursday 25. & Friday 26th.

The Sugar contracts have been trending significantly higher the last 2 months since testing August 2015 LOW levels on August 22nd 2018. When this commodity starts trending, it does it beautifully.

Looking towards the shorter term moves below, there is a researched intraday pattern in Sugar # 11 Futures contracts for Thursday 25th and Friday 26th linked together.

SUGAR iNTRADAY 25AND26TH OCT 2018

A major timewindow is intended Thursday afternoon around 14:30 CEST, for then to keep trending through Friday. But you never know.

Anyhow - do not fight the tape - the trend is usually your friend.

Remember to keep a preferred stop loss in place at all times (average daily range is 0.35).

This is a 30 minute bar chart.

...And below is the actual intraday chart for the two tradingdays.

Sugar Actual for Thursday 25. & Friday 26

The 14:30 timewindow proved to be essential and behaved inverse to the sited map into 10 o'clock Friday. The trend from Thursday continued through Friday.


Gold Thursday 25. & Friday 26.

This week you see the Goldprice for Thursday and Friday mapped together in this one chart below. The last couple of months shows generally a weak intraday Thursday and a stronger  session on Friday's. The strongest day of the week lately, is Tuesday's - by far. Wednesday's are the weakest of all.

Looking at the chart displayed, it seems there could be a greater reaction to price from around 09:00 AM CEST Thursday morning running into the afternoon - thereby more sideways to down pattern to about US. Opening bell, for then to close the Friday slightly higher than it started.

Only time will show if this turns out to be true.

GOLD PRICE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SMALL MAPPED

Above is a 10 minute bar chart sited in CEST times. A more clear picture of this 2-days chart can be viewed in a greater large format here.

 

..And the actual intraday Goldprice development for Thursday and Friday is here.


Silver for Tuesday 23.10.18

Here is the mapped intraday Silver action for tomorrow Tuesday.

SILVER MAPPED FOR TUESDAY 231018

A major turningpoint is sited around 12:20 CEST, and then about 16:20 running into 19:30.

The chart is a 10 minute bar chart.

..and below is the actual result for the intraday traded Tuesday 23.10.18..

SILVERINTRADAY231018 

As this chart shows - There is clearly a momentum play the 23rd (Green line), which is quite similar to the researched and mapped graph (Red line). The latest LOW for the upmove this Tuesday occured approx. 4 hours eariler (08:20) than mapped (12:20). Even though - following the post set timewindows produced + results.

 

 


DAX MONDAY 22.10.18

After reseaching intraday action for Mondays, this is how tomorrows development could look like for the DAX Future index.

DAXRESEARCHEDMONDAY231018

Timewindows are set for CEST and the chart is a 10 minute bar chart.

The two important times for the DAX Monday 22nd, is 08:30 and 16:40. To see the actual outcome in comparison to this mapped chart - see the DAX page.

Remember that timewindows may act inverse to price, as support - or as resistance to price, anyhow. It could pause an already excisting trend and even excellerate it. Make sure to keep a preffered stop loss in place at all times.

Below is how last Monday moved. The timewindows were preferred entry and exit times based on similar research.

DaxMondayOctober15th

The outcome sited + 100 points with a 15 points stop loss.

 


OMX Sweden Monday 22.10.18

Mapping tomorrows market action for the OMX Sweden index could look like this:

OMXMONDAY221018  

The two main turningopint could turn out to be 10:50 CEST and 14:30 CEST.

Based on last weeks data the index may move until 30 points intraday (low to high or high to low).

Remember that a turningpoint can act as pause to an already ongoing trend, and may act inverse to what you already see. 


Silver & Nasdaq100 next week 43

Nasdaq100 peaked 14 tradingdays ago and closed yesterday (Friday) down 6.7% from its recent high. Silver holds up in comparison, and is + 0.4% over the same period. Similar to its topping developments in 2000 and 2007.

Below is a table showing the price development post the highs in 2000, 2007 and in 2018 for both Silver and Nasdaq100. Coming Monday is tradingday 15 from the recent Nasdaq100 high and this Monday shows weakness in 2000 and 2007. Silver shows a strong Monday in 2007 but a weaker 2000. Throughout the week Nasdaq100 could show some recovery.

Only time will show how week 43 in 2018 will fit into this next weeks table. 

nasdaq100vssilverweek43

 

Below is an overview of how Nasdaq100 and Silver stands today up against to the major Nasdaq100 peaks in 2000 and 2007.

 

qqq

 

Now looking at the present market situation vs a potenially state in 2007, research find that a major uptrend for Silver could start within the next 20 tradingdays. See chart below.

silvernowto2007 

This major uptrend lasted for 3 months in 2007 into 2008. If a similar situation is about to take place, this next leg up for Silver should last from mid November to mid February 2019.


Silver Friday 19.10.18

Research shows that tomorrows (Friday 19.10.18) intraday priceaction for Silver could look similar to this:

Silver Intraday Research Chart for Friday 191018

The timewindows above are illustrated in CEST times.  

A 7 hours strongly trending Silvermarket could potentially start from the turn around 09:00 to last until about 16:00. What happens through the early European morning and after normal workhours seems to be very little.

Always remeber that an inverse trending chart would be viewed oposite. Always keep a preferred stop loss in place. 

 

 

..And below is the actual outcome of this Friday.

Silver Intraday actual Friday 191018

The two main point for today were 09:00 and 16:00. This long trade (with a 0.15 stop loss) acheived an ok profit as shown through the chart. 

 


COCOA Thursday 18.10.18

Below is the researched intraday chart for Cocoa price behavior the latest Thursdays.

Cocoa Intraday Thursdays

This 10 minute bar chart shows buyingpressure into high @ 14:20 (CEST) and then trending down to about 17:30.

Remember that turningpoints at times may react inverse or pause an already trending direction. Always keep a preferred stop loss in place.

 


Nasdaq100 Now vs 2007

Looking at the Nasdaq100 index from 2007 and into 2008, markets trended sharply downwards.

Nasdaq100 in 2007 into 2008 pic

See this larger chart.

The major move from the very top lasted from 31.10.2007 to 17.03.2008 equal to 94 tradingdays falling 25.4%. The majority of this downtrend lasted only 19 tradingdays from 26.12.2007 to 23.01.2008 showing a 20% fall.

 


NASDAQ100 WEDNESDAY 17.10.18

Nasdaq100 Future index shows a clear pattern to the downside on Wednesdays the last weeks. This is 10 minute bar chart shows the trend.

NASDAQ100FUTUREWEDNESDAYS

Research shows that Wednesdays (by far) shows the weakest intraday trend for the day of the week lately.

According to the chart, it is worthwhile to be aware of the potentially strong intraday trend from 08:30 AM CEST into about 17:10. These are the timewindows to look for highs and lows. From about 20:20 into the late night there has been strong selloffs.

Always remember that moves may set up to be inverse to what you see, and that timewindows could be important for the very next move.

.....And below is the actual Wednesday 17.10.2018 vs the Wednesday intraday map shown Tuesday.

Nasdaq100Wednesday171018

By following todays map, a stop loss of 20 points would have been ok, and the reward from a shortposition at 08:40 CEST to 17:10 resulted in a + 100 points trade. 


GOLD TUESDAYs

The Gold price intraday for Tuesdays is displayed below.

GOLDTUESDAYs

This chart is created based on the last Tuesdays price behaviors, and worth a look pre tomorrows priceaction for Gold.

Always remember that movements can be inverse to what you see, and that timewindows could be important for the very next move.

For ex.: - Looking at the graph above, 12:40 PM (CEST) could be a relevant timewindow to go long Gold tomorrow Tuesday, for then to be exited around 17:30. If there instead is an inverse play going on, the opposite could be praticed with a sell order at 12:40, followed by a buyback order to exit at 17:30. A preferred tight stop loss should be implimented at entry in both instances. 

 


Silver intraday week 41

XAG WEEK 41

- This is how this passed week behaved intraday for the Silver price. The white metal started and ended the week unchanged @ USD 14.63 on a potentially weekly key reveral.


Platinum Gold Ratio

As markets see Gold and Silver move strongly to the upside yesterday, here is the daily development of Platinum to Gold. Its lowpoint, since at least the 1990's, was this July and retested Friday 07. Sept at 0.65.

The ratio is now attempting to technically break to the upside of the horizontal resistance line. Longer term, holding some Platinum over Gold could be an interresting play? 

PLATGOLDRATIO 


Silver vs Nasdaq100 Friday

Nasdaq100 continued to fall today as Silver recover.

According to the table below (see Wednesday for explain), Nasdaq100 could recover or flatten out Friday if comparing to the 2000 and 2007 peaks.

silvervsnasdaq100fri

If the table is still some sort of map, Nasdaq100 index for next week could be flat (as in 2007) or quite downtrending (as in 2000). Only time will show.

Below is the ongoing chart comparisons updated after intraday Thursday.

nasdaq100topvsSilverxxx

 


Silver vs Nasdaq100 Thursday

Silver vs Nasdaq100 below. Continued from yesterday - see yesterday for table explained.

nasdaq100silvertabletop

Today is intraday number 8 from present Nasdaq100 top.

Yesterday saw a major fall for the Nasdaq100 index relative to the 2007 topping formation.

If 2007 is a route, the index may fall another 2% today, only to recover somewhat tomorrow to go sideways next week.  The year 2000 route shows stength today and tomorrow, and then trending down significantly next week. The table shows Silver to outperform this next period.

The chart below gives you present state.

nasdaq100topvssilver


SILVER vs NASDAQ100 TOPs

How is Silver holding up at stockmarket tops? Does the price of silver fall in tandem with Nasdaq100 index?

The chart displays the development of Nasdaq100 vs the price of Silver in conjunction to the 2000 top, the 2007 top, and present market conditions.

NASDAQ100VSSILVER

As the chart above shows, the price of silver does hold up quite well compared to Nasdaq100 when the index tops in 2000 and 2007 (and so far in October). The graph shows data for 20 tradingdays pre its respective tops, and 35 tradingdays post its tops.

SILVERVSNASDAQ100TOPS

The table above shows you how Silver vs Nasdaq100 developes post its major 2000 and 2007 peaks vs now.

Yesterday, Nasdaq100 was down 3.8% from the present top 7 tradingdays ago. Silver in comparison is down 1.3%. See table.

For the upcoming 8 tradingdays, the table could give some clearance to the potentially further price developments in Silver vs Nasdaq100 in retrorespect to earlier market peaks.

The table concludes, that Silver does hold up much better than Nasdaq100 for the two earlier stockmarket peaking periods. If similar patterns emerge now, markets should prefer holding Silver rather than Nasdaq100 going forward. 


NASDAQ100 TOPs

Today Wednesday is the 8th intraday since the Nasdaq100 (temp.) top.

Below is a table showing how the present terrain for the Nasdaq100 index now evolves compared to the 2000 and 2007 tops.

nasdaq100topdays

The table shows the development from the very intraday top in 2000 and 2007 compared to todays trading envionment. It is impossible to know if it turns out somewhat true...

If the number is BLUE, it marks stronger trading than the day before.

If the number is RED, it marks weaker trading than the day before.

The 2000 market top shows strong trading today, tomorrow and this Friday.

The 2007 market top shows weak trading today and tomorrow, and somewhat stronger this coming Friday.

Next trading week is weak for 2007 and extremely weak for 2000. Only time will show if any of these years are maps for our present trading.

 

 


NASDAQ100 NOW VS 2000 2007

Nasdaq100 index now compared to its topping development in 2000 and 2007.

NASDAQ100TOP

Regardsless of how you look at it - this should be an interresting chart if you are into the markets in any way. The RED line shows where the Nasdaq100 index is trading right now indexed to the year 2000 top and the 2007 top.

The chart shows you the index performance 20 tradingdays pre the daily topaction, and 55 days post the daily top action. Looking at the 2007 top, the index trades sideways from todays levels for about 35 more tradingdays and then head further south. The 2000 development shows us a steep decline within the next few trading sessions, and thereby see more choppy to downtrending intradays.



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