trading ranges - high to low or low to high

RANGE  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 01.45 00.03 023 027 00.70 00.07 014 00.30 
2 HRS. 03.00 00.06 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 04.30 00.09 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 05.70 00.12 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 12.20 00.25 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 26.50 00.53 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

Intraday-price-moves for dedicated timeframes (showing the 'volatility' expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 for the day, then it is less likely Gold will stretch much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., do expect a USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Be happy to acheive intraday gains equal to a specified range. Numbers also to be used towards stop loss ranges.

intraday chart and comment

Nasdaq100 & the markets

Nasdaq100 has managed to move + 15% since x-mas, but is still - 10% from the October 2018 All Time High.

Updating the present longer term chart and comparing it to how the DJIA and DAX performed in 1966 into 1967 and 1973 into 1974, - it seems that markets next fase is more likely to turn lower over the next 135 to 170 tradingdays.

090219 - nasdaq100 vs 1966-1967 and 1973-1974

The 4 Red Dots are marked by the respective periodical lows, and shows us that 'if these market-maps are guides', a first potential low for Nasdaq100 will be in about 135 tradingsessions (66-67 DJIA) from this Monday 11th of Feb.. Most similar to the present price action developing from the October 1st top, continues to be the 73-74 DJIA scenario - with a lowpoint about 147 tradingdays away, and - 30.5% lower than yesterday Friday close.

According to the market-map from 1973 - 1974, there should now be about 4-5 tradingdays  more before 143 trading-sessions of sliding..


NASDAQ100 DAILY

Time to get back to earth. The Nasdaq100 index is now up 15.5% since x-mas (see daily chart below). This means the index has retraced back 50% of the 60 tradingdays downturn from October 1st at 7.700 peak to the December 26th low, in just 16 tradingdays.

170119 - NASDAQ100 SINCE X-MAS 

The last 4 weeks shows higher weekly lows, and higher weekly highs. A healthy sign of real strength. Tomorrow is Friday, the last tradingday of this week. Friday is traditionally a weaker tradingday for this index. Any pullback below todays low @ 6.614 is the first signal lower prices potetially to come. Only time will show further direction. Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place to limit your downside. 


Markets in perspective

Looking at history, reseach shows that stockmarkets could be far away from their end to current downturn. It seems that the October 01st 2018 top was spot on for now.

The graph below gives you the perspective. In February of 1966 the DJIA and DAX started trending down to bottom around the new year of 1967. In late October of 1973 DJIA and the DAX indices started the downturns ending in October of 1974.

Putting these downtrends into perspective, there are now between 154 and 189 intradays to go from present levels until markets could see their low points. These are marked with RED dots in the chart below.

By continuing to follow the DJIA path for 1973 into 1974, markets should not rule out prices - 30% lower than present levels this October of 2019 for thereby to be retested in December.  

140119 - NASDAQ100 IN PERSPECTIVE


Trading ranges

030119 - tradingrange table percent

Its moving up, its moving down, but how much is it actually moving within a certain timeframe?

Trading ranges are important because they tell you how much your trade or investment may move within a certain timeframe. Many traders use trading ranges as an effecient parameter to place stop loss - and take profit orders.

The table above shows how much Euro to USD, Gold- and Silver prices, the Dax index, Platinum, the Nasdaq100 index, Sugar-, Coffee-, Cocoa-, and Oil prices and Bitcoin moves within set timeframes. The currency pair Euro to USD, Gold- and Silver prices moves the least, as Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Oilprices and Bitcoin makes the most and solid price moves.

The table shows the average trading range of the last 1.000 bars for its timewindow.'1 DAY and 1 WEEK' shows the daily and weekly trading ranges for 2018.

30 MIN more than 0.5%: Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

2 HRS more than 1%: Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

4 HRS more than 1.5%: Cocoa and Bitcoin.

6 HRS more than 2%: Bitcoin.

1 DAY more than 2%: Nasdaq100 index, Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

1 WEEK more than 5%: Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

 


Nasdaq100 & Silver 041218.

After the last strong intradays, here is an updated chart vs the map of DJIA 1973-1974.

Nasdaq100 do continue to follow the 1973-1974 map of DJIA. Over the next period, markets would now see a lowpoint in approx. 30 intradays from yesterdays close.

Thereafter, rising prices equivalent to + 5.3% compared to yesterday's close . In time - in 51 tradingdays. From this point, markets could start the 143 days downtrend to mark its lowpoint in the beginning of October 2019. This slide may be counted as a fall of - 34%.

041218djia1973-1974

Only time will show if 1973-1974 proves to be the most 'correct' historical path.

 

Below is the Nasdaq100 index up against the price of Silver. A ratio is created to see the relative present values. The All time high for the Nasdaq100 index is marked by the vertical line for a broader perspective.

041218NASDAQ100SILVERATIO 


1973-1974 vs 2018-2019.

An interesting observation about 1973 into 1974.

If present market status is to be compared to 1973 - 1974, there are interesting observations for the next year, see chart below. The red line shows where the Nasdaq100 index stands today, and the dark line shows the development for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

DJIA 1973 VS NQ100 2018

- The Nasdaq100 index will see a broader consolidation fase (or stay relatively unchanged) from present levels until the second week of June of 2019.

But - over the coming 55 tradingdays, markets will see an upturn of + 9.5%, and thereby slide -34% over 143 tradingdays into its first week of October of 2019.

That October 2019 low, will be retested one percent lower 45 intradays later, in early December of 2019. The periods mentioned are marked in the chart above with red dots.

Passed performance do never equal future performance. 


Nasdaq100's next fase

A few days ago, the 16th of November, this post was put out for the Nasdaq100 index.

Continuing the conversation about the Nasdaq100 development, the big question is IF the index now will continue to follow the 2007 route (see graph below), or - if it will drop straight through the floor (red support line) and outpace the 2007 into 2008 downtrend.

The two red dots marked in the dark graph below shows a fall of 20% in 56 tradingdays. For the present red graph to follow this map more closely, the index should preferrably bounce in the beginning of this week, for thereby to start the real - 20% drop about Thursday the 29th of November to last 56 intradays. 

nasdaq100 now vs 2007 into 2008

Only time will show if there is some validity to this 2007 into 2008 map...

If now taking this a step further adding the 1973 and 1987 for the DJIA and 2000 and 2007 for the Nasdaq100 index, and comparing it to present levels for the Nasdaq100 index - this is what you got:

MARKETS

The red dots marks the low point of its respective downtrends.

Calculated from Fridays close, you will find that the DJIA development in 1973 is 2.7% lower in 36 tradingdays. The DJIA in 1987 is 21% lower in 34 tradingdays. The year 2000 for the Nasdaq100 index equals 10% lower in 4 days, and the Nasdaq100 in 2007 is 20% lower in 56 intradays.


Nasdaq100 - strong Tuesday

The Nasdaq100 Future index has proved to show strong Tuesdays since this summer. This is the strongest intraday of the entire week. Wednesday is the weakest.

Below is a map sited for the next two intradays after analysing marketdata. Looking at past performance for tomorrow and Wednesday, markets could start buying into a rebound rally lasting from about 14:40 CET Tuesday into the US open Wednesday 15:40 CET.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place, and remember the average daily range for the index (not to be stopped out at the 'wrong' level).

Timewindows may be a time of the day where prices make solid turnarounds, pause or accellerate an already existing trend. The picture may also act inverse to what you see (a low could be a high and high could be a low). By entering or exiting around a dedicated timewindow you may acheive a more optimal price, by foreseeing a potential support and resistance level.

Here is a large image of the Nasdaq100 Future index above


Nasdaq100 - 20% soon?

Will Nasdaq100 soon drop 20%?

From the recent market peak October 1st, we have compared the Nasdaq100 index to marketmoves in 2007, 2000 and 1987.

If you are taking a closer look at the Nasdaq100 index peak for 2007 trading into 2008, you see high correlations to the present market situation. See chart below.

NASDAQ100NOWVS2007

If this 2007 chart above is a roadmap going forward - a drop of 20% in 56 tradingdays is within reach for the Nasdaq100 index shortly:

Transferring the 2007 points to the present situation, the first red dot would now be placed on next next Tuesday the 29th of November. A second red dot will be placed 56 tradingdays later and turn out to be about 15th of January 2019.

The red hoisontal lines are set to show the importance to the supportlevel from 29th of october this year duplicated from the 2007 supportlevel. A daily close below this area is quickly a confirmation of weakness.

Only time will show is this route is the present correct map into 2019.

 


NASDAQ100's downtrend continues

Nasdaq100 could fall further before next bounce.

The Nasdaq100 index bounced off its lows at the turn of the month, and now looks to possibly continue its weakness (vs the 2007, 2000 and 1987 peaks), after consolidating the first real move down from its recent all time high October 1st. The index future is down 10.9%.

If the 2007, 2000, and 1987 peaks are still comparable to present price development, current weakness should bring the market(s) quite a bit lower within at least the next 9 trading sessions. Thereafter, the index should consolidate the move for a while.

See chart below.

NASDAQ100 PT


Nasdaq100 Mond 05. & Tuesd 06. Nov.

The Nasdaq100 Future tends to trade stronger through parts of the European session on Mondays (the last couple of months). The index then drifts lower towards the close of the US stockmarket session.

Monday has been the second weakest day of the week lately (after Wednesdays). Below is an intraday chart mapping Monday and Tuesday's potential developments.

Nasdaq100 Future mapped for Monday and Tuesday

Tuesday is trading weak until European afternoon, for then to trend smoothly throughout the US stockmarket hours. Tuesday shows to be the strongest day of the week lately, and negative sessions are few and only marginally into minus territory.

Designated timewindows are set to optimize entry and exit levels for positions. Remember that a timewindow could be where prices turns around, but it can also be where prices pause for then to continue or an already existing major or minor trend. When invested, always keep a preferred stop loss in place to limit losses. 

Times are CET.

 

...and here is the actual intradays traded:

NASDAQ100 MOND 05 AND TUESD 06 NOV

All four mapped timewindows proved to act as significant timezones / timewindows for the two actual tradingdays (Support to price, pause or resistance to price).


Nasdaq100 into November

The question is if the turn of the month for August, September and October could tell anything about the coming trading patterns for the 1st and 2nd tradingdays in November?

Today's 10 minute bar chart has put these three months into one graph for the Nasdaq100 Future index.

Displayed below are the intradays patterns for the first and second days of the last 3 months.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE 1ST AND 2ND DAY OF THE MONTH AUG SEPT AND OCT

Looking toward to todays and tomorrows trading sessions, the chart above shows that a timewindow could be seen around 16:30 CET Thursday, for then to trend until 15:50 CET on Friday.

Only time will show if this 'beginning of the month map' is a relevant tradingroute for this Nov 1st and Nov 2nd.

On the other hand, a different chart is mapped below. This is an ordinary intraday analysis for Thursday and Friday this week. Compared to the 'beginning of the month map', this intraday chart below, actually signals turningpoints for silmilar timewindows. First, Thursday around 4 PM CET, then Friday around 15:15 CET.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE MAP FOR THURSDAY NOV 1 AND FRIDAY NOV 2 2018 

Only time will show if these charts are any 'good' trading maps for today and tomorrow.

 


Markets tops as of Tuesday 30th Oct.

Nasdaq100 continues its weakness from Oct 1st, and is now down 11.2% since the recent peak. The table below shows how the present trading-level unfolds compared to the 2007 and 2000 peaks.

NASDAQ100 VS XAG TABLE

Markets are now 21 intradays post its very Nasdaq100 top. This table outlines performance through next Friday (29 tradingdays post its respective daily peaks). The table overview could now paint a consolidation fase over the coming 9 intradays for the index, and somewhat stronger Silver prices going into next Friday.

This next chart shows the development for both Nasdaq100 index and price of Silver for 46 intradays post the 2000, 2007 and 2018 peaks.

NASDAQ100 TOPS VS SILVER 2000 2007 2018

This last chart compares 1987 for DJIA vs Nasdaq100 in 2000, 2007 and 2018.

MARKETS XX

The red vertical line is placed at November 14th 2018, and the chart displays 100 tradingdays post respective peaks. Only time will show if history is a trading map.


Nasdaq100 Tuesday 30th / Wednesday 31st.

Markets are getting closer to a new tradingmonth, and the upcoming last two intradays of October may be volatile. A map for tomorrow's and Wednesday's intradays are presented in a chart below. Only the time will show if there is reliability to the patterns and timewindows outlined. All timewindows are CET.

NASDAQ100 INTRADAY TUESDAY 30TH AND WEDENSDAY 31ST OCT 2018 SMALL

A lager and clearer image can be viewed here

The last months shows Tuesday to be the strongest intraday of the week, and Wednesday the aboslutely weakest.

 

...and below is the actual intraday development for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Nasdaq100 Future Actual Tues 30th and Wedn 31st Oct 

The 05:30 timewindow highlighted in red shows the importance of time to change in course of price. The map outlined on Monday for Tuesday and Wednesday showed 05:30 as a 'high', and the actual market viewed this as a 'low' (for thereby explode to the upside). In other words a total inverse relationship.

The actual Nasdaq100 Future chart does in this case behave inverse in relation to the map. This gives an example of how important a timewindow could be. Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place to limit potential trading losses.


Nasdaq100 Peaks vs Silver

This chart displays how the Nasdaq100 index and Silver performs these days - compared to the Nasdaq100 peak in 2000 and 2007. This story continues as a followup few intradays after the very top this year October 1st.

The Nasdaq100 index is presently down 10% from its peak, and looks to find a temp. bottom quite soon (if comparing the peaks of 2000 and 2007), to trade sideways before heading further south again. Markets are dynamic, and only time will show if history is 'repeatable'.

NASDAQ100 PEAK VS SILVER

Silver is holding up strong and the question is - if it could start a new uptrend withing the next 15 intraday sessions as in 2007? See chart below.

SILVER NOW VS SILVER IN 2007

 


Silver & Nasdaq100 next week 43

Nasdaq100 peaked 14 tradingdays ago and closed yesterday (Friday) down 6.7% from its recent high. Silver holds up in comparison, and is + 0.4% over the same period. Similar to its topping developments in 2000 and 2007.

Below is a table showing the price development post the highs in 2000, 2007 and in 2018 for both Silver and Nasdaq100. Coming Monday is tradingday 15 from the recent Nasdaq100 high and this Monday shows weakness in 2000 and 2007. Silver shows a strong Monday in 2007 but a weaker 2000. Throughout the week Nasdaq100 could show some recovery.

Only time will show how week 43 in 2018 will fit into this next weeks table. 

nasdaq100vssilverweek43

 

Below is an overview of how Nasdaq100 and Silver stands today up against to the major Nasdaq100 peaks in 2000 and 2007.

 

qqq

 

Now looking at the present market situation vs a potenially state in 2007, research find that a major uptrend for Silver could start within the next 20 tradingdays. See chart below.

silvernowto2007 

This major uptrend lasted for 3 months in 2007 into 2008. If a similar situation is about to take place, this next leg up for Silver should last from mid November to mid February 2019.


Nasdaq100 Now vs 2007

Looking at the Nasdaq100 index from 2007 and into 2008, markets trended sharply downwards.

Nasdaq100 in 2007 into 2008 pic

See this larger chart.

The major move from the very top lasted from 31.10.2007 to 17.03.2008 equal to 94 tradingdays falling 25.4%. The majority of this downtrend lasted only 19 tradingdays from 26.12.2007 to 23.01.2008 showing a 20% fall.

 


NASDAQ100 WEDNESDAY 17.10.18

Nasdaq100 Future index shows a clear pattern to the downside on Wednesdays the last weeks. This is 10 minute bar chart shows the trend.

NASDAQ100FUTUREWEDNESDAYS

Research shows that Wednesdays (by far) shows the weakest intraday trend for the day of the week lately.

According to the chart, it is worthwhile to be aware of the potentially strong intraday trend from 08:30 AM CEST into about 17:10. These are the timewindows to look for highs and lows. From about 20:20 into the late night there has been strong selloffs.

Always remember that moves may set up to be inverse to what you see, and that timewindows could be important for the very next move.

.....And below is the actual Wednesday 17.10.2018 vs the Wednesday intraday map shown Tuesday.

Nasdaq100Wednesday171018

By following todays map, a stop loss of 20 points would have been ok, and the reward from a shortposition at 08:40 CEST to 17:10 resulted in a + 100 points trade. 


Silver vs Nasdaq100 Friday

Nasdaq100 continued to fall today as Silver recover.

According to the table below (see Wednesday for explain), Nasdaq100 could recover or flatten out Friday if comparing to the 2000 and 2007 peaks.

silvervsnasdaq100fri

If the table is still some sort of map, Nasdaq100 index for next week could be flat (as in 2007) or quite downtrending (as in 2000). Only time will show.

Below is the ongoing chart comparisons updated after intraday Thursday.

nasdaq100topvsSilverxxx

 


Silver vs Nasdaq100 Thursday

Silver vs Nasdaq100 below. Continued from yesterday - see yesterday for table explained.

nasdaq100silvertabletop

Today is intraday number 8 from present Nasdaq100 top.

Yesterday saw a major fall for the Nasdaq100 index relative to the 2007 topping formation.

If 2007 is a route, the index may fall another 2% today, only to recover somewhat tomorrow to go sideways next week.  The year 2000 route shows stength today and tomorrow, and then trending down significantly next week. The table shows Silver to outperform this next period.

The chart below gives you present state.

nasdaq100topvssilver



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