daily ranges - high to low or low to high

RANGE  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  
  DAILY  12.50  00.25  104  150  02.75  0.35  66.5  
30 MIN. 01.45 00.03 020 026 0.70 0.07 14.0  
2 HRS. 03.00 00.06 035 47 01.00 0.12 29.0  

Intraday-price-moves for spesified timeframes (showing the 'volatility' expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 for the day, then it is less likely Gold will stretch much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., do expect at least USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Be happy to acheive intraday gains equal to a specified range.

intraday chart and comment

December Fed & Gold next week

Next Wednesday, FOMC will hold its last Federal Reserve meeting of 2018. In conjuction to these meetings, there are larger than normal gold price fluctuations making great short term trading oppertunities. How much gold price change should be expected and in what direction?

The diagram below shows how gold tend to swing the days pre and post a December Fed meeting. Today 12.12, markets are trading day 2 in the overview, were gold has the largest intraday stretch on average from low to high or high to low (the last 6 years). It has not been less than USD 10 the last years, rather closer to USD 20.

Number 8 in the overview, is 'equvalent' to next Wednesday the 19th.

FED GOLD VOLATILITY DECEMBER MEETINGS 2012 - 2017

Looking at the gold price trend through a December Fed meeting, markets on average see a fading price development over the next 2 weeks. See chart below. Next Wednesday is marked in yellow. The last years, gold has struggled to find buyingpower through these December meetings, as stockmarkets have been strong. But who knows, maybe it is all different this year..  

FED GOLD TREND DECEMBER 2012 - 2017

 

 

 


Dax and Gold for Tuesday 111218.

There are two routes put out for tomorrow Tuesday 11.12.18.

The first one is an analysis of Gold. The yellow metal do trade quite strongly during parts of Tuesday since this passed summer.

GOLD INTRADAY TUESDAY 111218 

Gold's three interesting timewindows to look out for tomorrow Tuesday, is just after midnight (all times displayed are set for CET / GMT + 1 HR.). The second timewindow is around 14:30 when the US Producer Price Index numbers are released. And the third window approx one hour before US trading session close. 

The Dax Future index map below shows a strong trending european stock market session for tomorrow Tuesday. The route suggests a down, but maps could be inverse.

DAX MAP TUESDAY 111218 

Remember that these maps are created based on researched intraday data, and may differ totally from what actually will happen in the markets. The timewindows could pinpoint market turns of interest or signal support or resistance to prices as they develop. You never know until tomorrow is history.

Always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all positions, and be aware of the daily ranges.

On top of this page you will see how much certain instruments move within its certain timeframe.

 

...And below - the actual traded Gold market and DAX Future for this Tuesday:

131218 - GOLD ACTUAL TUESDAY 111218

When it comes to the Gold development for Tuesday (see actual traded chart above), the map outlined to buy at about 00:10 CET for then to sell out the position at 14:30 CET. At 14:30 CET, a short position is entered and then covered around 20:50 CET. The range (low to high, or high to low) this intraday was USD 7. Following the map took home the profit of + USD 6.9, using only stop loss of USD 2 a trade. Tight, but enough to not be stopped out.

Below is the Dax Future to be compared to its map (further up in this post).

131218 - DAX ACTUAL INTRADAY TUESDAY

The Dax Future suggested a strong trending map for Tuesday, and a potentially inverse one. This turned out to be the case.

So -  If believing in an inverse actual traded intraday, trading starts off 09:20 CET as a long position to be sold out around 16:10 CET, for then to switch to a short position to be covered 17:30 CET. This scenario made + 205 points with a 30 points stop loss. 

If the sited map was 100% followed, the stop loss would have determined the profit / loss case for the intraday. When entering a short position 09:20 CET, a stop loss of 30 points would have been hit within an hour. At that time or later in the day, a thought is to see the next upcoming timewindow as a high rather than a low for thereby to go short again. A short trade 16:10 CET to be covered 17:30 was highly profitable (+ 45 points). When adding this to the first loosing trade, this Tuesday turned out + 15 points. 


GOLD 14:20-15:20

At times, Gold can make explosive moves as yesterday, when the Fed Chairman held a speech.

Fast forward to 0:32:30 minutes to hear the speech.

GOLD MOVE WEDNESDAY 281118

The markets knew in advance about the upcoming Powell's speech and Gold traded in a tight range in the hours leading up to the event: Then - a way to play this 'potential' explosive move, could be to place 'a stop buy order' at 1.215 one hour into the US trading session and simultaneously place 'a stop loss order' just below the 15:20 CET low or by 1/2 the daily range of USD 12,5. After the excecution of the 'stop buy order', the stop loss could have been trailed to entry at 1.215 or higher. Alternatively, sold out after X USD.

A larger one minute chart with highs and lows showing the FED Gold behaviour from 2 hours pre speech to 3 hours post the speech is at this link. Times are CET.: "A top 22 minutes before the speech, thereby an explosive move to the upside without looking back. Immediate buyingpower. The strong buying lasts only 11 minutes, for there to sell off for 33 minutes. Buying comes in again lasting 29 minutes, for then to fade off over the next 56 minutes".

Here is tick by tick of how Gold vs Silver vs Nasdaq100 index moved parts of this intraday.

GOLDSIVERNASDAQ100SPEACH281118

All 3 strong, but Gold most reluctant, Silver more explosive, Nasdaq100 steady strong buying. 

Speaking of moves in the Gold market, 15:20 CET is an interesting timewindow. It is just ahead of the US Open, but also the time where short trades from 14:20 CET could be exited:

Throughout the tradingweek, research proves that the Gold market favours traders to stay short from 14:20 - 15:20 CET.

goldweektrades

The last few weeks has changed these tradingpatterns slightly, and Wednesday has gone from showing a positive hour to a negative hour. All 5 tradingdays of the week are presently in a negative territory this one trading hour. See last post here.

The wild 'FED chart' above is a great example of how quickly markets may change.

Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place. No matter the direction of the trade. Passed performance does not equal future performance. 

For questions or comments email any time intraday@intraday.no


Gold's new calendar?

Gold June to June.

The yearly calendar starts January 1st and ends December 31st.

Below is Gold's development set into a different perspective. The chart shows the average two year period (in Blue) from June 2001 to June 2016 up against the latest running 2 year period (in Red) from June 2017 - June 2019.

Gold markets are presently trading in a seaonally strong period until late February of 2019. Looking at the chart, there is + 6% (to 1.294) from todays price level 1.221 to the average seasonal high.   

GOLD JUNE TO JUNE

The Blue graph seems to show limited downside from here, but there are plenty of examples were seasonalities or predictions fails or act inverse. Make sure to always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all trades, long or short. 


GOLD FRIDAY & MONDAY

The Goldprice shows strong Fridays. 

Below is an intraday chart siting the one hour old Friday and the upcoming Monday.

GOLD MAPPED FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY

There seems to be two important timewindows to keep in mind for the two tradingdays:

About 12:10 CET Friday, and about 18:10 CET Monday.

 

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all trades and remember the daily range for it to be placed accordingly.


Gold shorter term

The Goldprice attempted again to trade up through resistance today, and instead retraced and turned south towards yesterday's and the overnight low.

This 10 minute line chart below tells where the Goldprice presently stands:

XAU10MIN

Technically, there could be three important price levels to watch shortly. If Gold trades up above 1.235 soon, there is quickly room to move towards the 1.300 level in the fastlane.

Any trading below the 1.224 level could trigger selling towards last week low @ the 1.212 area.

Looking at the red indicator - as long as trading is done below the red line, it favours the shortside. Trading above the red line favours longs. Gold needs to trade out of choppyness to start trending again.


Goldprice before US open

Gold favours shorts..

In the search of consistent trading patterns for the Gold price intraday, there are interesting observation from 14:20 – 15:20 CET (since July to present):

Thursday is the preferred day to go short gold from 14:20 – 15:20 CET. Wednesday is the day to stay Long, but from 14:00 CET, and to close the position at 15:00 CET.

Monday, Tuesday and Friday also favours short positions from 14:20 – 15:20 CET as pointed out below. Here are the distributions of favourable outcomes.

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
22% 21.8% 10.8% 25.6% 19.9%

 

These intraday patterns seems to be persistant regardless of the entire intraday priceaction from open to close, and regardless of 'longer trends'.GOLD INTRADAY TRADES 14 - 15

Always make sure to keep a relevant stop loss in place to limit losses, always remeber a daily range of an instrument, and always expect the unexpected!  


Goldprice Friday - Monday

Goldprice proves to trade to the upside the latest Fridays.

Here is a map outlined for tomorrows Friday intraday, and upcoming Monday the 5th of November.

GOLD PRICE MAPPED SMALL FRID AND MOND

The chart points to a major intraday turnaround 17:00 CET Friday. If this timewindow is a top or a low is way too early to tell. But as of today Thursday, metals are strong - so if it persists, it could look pause / consolidate just before dinner time Friday, and then to look for support again Monday afternoon.

Only time will show if some of the timewindows above do transfer to actual trading patterns.

Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place no matter what direction is traded. If you are to pick up a trade at a certain time window you should be willing to give the position a stop loss enough room to play within at least the average daily range.


Markets tops as of Tuesday 30th Oct.

Nasdaq100 continues its weakness from Oct 1st, and is now down 11.2% since the recent peak. The table below shows how the present trading-level unfolds compared to the 2007 and 2000 peaks.

NASDAQ100 VS XAG TABLE

Markets are now 21 intradays post its very Nasdaq100 top. This table outlines performance through next Friday (29 tradingdays post its respective daily peaks). The table overview could now paint a consolidation fase over the coming 9 intradays for the index, and somewhat stronger Silver prices going into next Friday.

This next chart shows the development for both Nasdaq100 index and price of Silver for 46 intradays post the 2000, 2007 and 2018 peaks.

NASDAQ100 TOPS VS SILVER 2000 2007 2018

This last chart compares 1987 for DJIA vs Nasdaq100 in 2000, 2007 and 2018.

MARKETS XX

The red vertical line is placed at November 14th 2018, and the chart displays 100 tradingdays post respective peaks. Only time will show if history is a trading map.


Gold Thursday 25. & Friday 26.

This week you see the Goldprice for Thursday and Friday mapped together in this one chart below. The last couple of months shows generally a weak intraday Thursday and a stronger  session on Friday's. The strongest day of the week lately, is Tuesday's - by far. Wednesday's are the weakest of all.

Looking at the chart displayed, it seems there could be a greater reaction to price from around 09:00 AM CEST Thursday morning running into the afternoon - thereby more sideways to down pattern to about US. Opening bell, for then to close the Friday slightly higher than it started.

Only time will show if this turns out to be true.

GOLD PRICE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SMALL MAPPED

Above is a 10 minute bar chart sited in CEST times. A more clear picture of this 2-days chart can be viewed in a greater large format here.

 

..And the actual intraday Goldprice development for Thursday and Friday is here.


GOLD TUESDAYs

The Gold price intraday for Tuesdays is displayed below.

GOLDTUESDAYs

This chart is created based on the last Tuesdays price behaviors, and worth a look pre tomorrows priceaction for Gold.

Always remember that movements can be inverse to what you see, and that timewindows could be important for the very next move.

For ex.: - Looking at the graph above, 12:40 PM (CEST) could be a relevant timewindow to go long Gold tomorrow Tuesday, for then to be exited around 17:30. If there instead is an inverse play going on, the opposite could be praticed with a sell order at 12:40, followed by a buyback order to exit at 17:30. A preferred tight stop loss should be implimented at entry in both instances. 

 


Silver intraday week 41

XAG WEEK 41

- This is how this passed week behaved intraday for the Silver price. The white metal started and ended the week unchanged @ USD 14.63 on a potentially weekly key reveral.


Platinum Gold Ratio

As markets see Gold and Silver move strongly to the upside yesterday, here is the daily development of Platinum to Gold. Its lowpoint, since at least the 1990's, was this July and retested Friday 07. Sept at 0.65.

The ratio is now attempting to technically break to the upside of the horizontal resistance line. Longer term, holding some Platinum over Gold could be an interresting play? 

PLATGOLDRATIO 


Silver vs Nasdaq100 Friday

Nasdaq100 continued to fall today as Silver recover.

According to the table below (see Wednesday for explain), Nasdaq100 could recover or flatten out Friday if comparing to the 2000 and 2007 peaks.

silvervsnasdaq100fri

If the table is still some sort of map, Nasdaq100 index for next week could be flat (as in 2007) or quite downtrending (as in 2000). Only time will show.

Below is the ongoing chart comparisons updated after intraday Thursday.

nasdaq100topvsSilverxxx

 


Silver vs Nasdaq100 Thursday

Silver vs Nasdaq100 below. Continued from yesterday - see yesterday for table explained.

nasdaq100silvertabletop

Today is intraday number 8 from present Nasdaq100 top.

Yesterday saw a major fall for the Nasdaq100 index relative to the 2007 topping formation.

If 2007 is a route, the index may fall another 2% today, only to recover somewhat tomorrow to go sideways next week.  The year 2000 route shows stength today and tomorrow, and then trending down significantly next week. The table shows Silver to outperform this next period.

The chart below gives you present state.

nasdaq100topvssilver


NASDAQ100 NOW VS 2000 2007

Nasdaq100 index now compared to its topping development in 2000 and 2007.

NASDAQ100TOP

Regardsless of how you look at it - this should be an interresting chart if you are into the markets in any way. The RED line shows where the Nasdaq100 index is trading right now indexed to the year 2000 top and the 2007 top.

The chart shows you the index performance 20 tradingdays pre the daily topaction, and 55 days post the daily top action. Looking at the 2007 top, the index trades sideways from todays levels for about 35 more tradingdays and then head further south. The 2000 development shows us a steep decline within the next few trading sessions, and thereby see more choppy to downtrending intradays.


XAG WEDNESDAYS

XAGINTRADAYWEDNESDAYS

Silver intraday for Wednesdays displayed. According to the last 5 midweek tradingdays, Silver tends to move sideways until European afternoon time, and then react sharply from about 14:20 to 17:30 (GMT + 1HR.). 4 of the last 5 Wednesdays have closed higher.


SILVER TUESDAYS

SILVERTUESDAYS

- Interrested in how the price of silver could move tomorrow? Take a look at this. Here is a silver price map for Tuesdays..The chart outlines 5 Tuesdays from August and September into one graph.


SILVER TUESDAYS

XAGINTRADAYTUESDAYS

Silver behavior on defined Tuesdays displayed through the chart.


GOLD FRIDAYS

XAUONFRIDAYS

This is how Gold has been trading intraday the last 4 Fridays (ex. today..). Tomorrow, we will see if it was a roadmap..



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