daily ranges - high to low or low to high

 DAILY RANGES  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  
  SINCE AUG 18  12.5  00.25  104  150  02.75  0.35  66.5  

Here are average intraday price moves showing the 'volatility' to expect. Ex.: if it is 2 PM & Gold has already moved USD 14, it is less likely the Gold price would stretch further that day. Be happy to acheive intraday gains equal to an average.

intraday chart and comment

Nasdaq100 - 20% soon?

Will Nasdaq100 soon drop 20%?

From the recent market peak October 1st, we have compared the Nasdaq100 index to marketmoves in 2007, 2000 and 1987.

If you are taking a closer look at the Nasdaq100 index peak for 2007 trading into 2008, you see high correlations to the present market situation. See chart below.

NASDAQ100NOWVS2007

If this 2007 chart above is a roadmap going forward - a drop of 20% in 56 tradingdays is within reach for the Nasdaq100 index shortly:

Transferring the 2007 points to the present situation, the first red dot would now be placed on next next Tuesday the 29th of November. A second red dot will be placed 56 tradingdays later and turn out to be about 15th of January 2019.

The red hoisontal lines are set to show the importance to the supportlevel from 29th of october this year duplicated from the 2007 supportlevel. A daily close below this area is quickly a confirmation of weakness.

Only time will show is this route is the present correct map into 2019.

 


SILVER NOW VS 2007 & 1987

Silver's next phase + 47% or - 11%?

The white metal looks to face an interesting trading period over the next 3 months. Historically, the seasonal trend may be strong from now on out through February. So, could Silver manage to go against the current stockmarket trend going forward? 

The Silver chart below (a period in 2007 into 2008), shows a strong uptrend for Silver gaining 47% where Nasdaq100 fell 22%. Looking at the red line (where XAG is now), you find that Silver could be turning up as soon as within this week (if 2007 is some sort of map). 

SILVER NOV   

On the other hand, in 1987 into 1988 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 31% over this very same period (peak + about 100 tradingdays).

At that time, Silver did not manage to stay against the stockmarket and traded down 11%. The Silverchart below outlines the Silverprice in 1987 vs today. The "22 more intradays" circle is sited from yesterday's close.   

SILVER NOW VS 1987

Only time will show if 2007 or 1987 really is comparable. 


NASDAQ100's downtrend continues

Nasdaq100 could fall further before next bounce.

The Nasdaq100 index bounced off its lows at the turn of the month, and now looks to possibly continue its weakness (vs the 2007, 2000 and 1987 peaks), after consolidating the first real move down from its recent all time high October 1st. The index future is down 10.9%.

If the 2007, 2000, and 1987 peaks are still comparable to present price development, current weakness should bring the market(s) quite a bit lower within at least the next 9 trading sessions. Thereafter, the index should consolidate the move for a while.

See chart below.

NASDAQ100 PT


Gold short term 10.11.18

Gold was trading to the weak side the latter part of this week after having tested the 1.235 resistance level several times, but without follow-through. Gold is down USD 23, two times a daily range or - 1.9% from last Friday's close.

The red indicator in the chart below as a moving average, is a lagging one but could effectively benefit traders showing strength confirmation to price movements. This exponential moving average (EMA) gives more weight to the latest price data and thereby reacting faster to momentum.

Looking into next week, the mapped intraday chart (see yesterday’s post), does not show an important timewindow until about 18:10 CET. This map is based on historical intraday data, and will be interesting to see how it matches up with the red EMA indicator in the 10 minute chart below.

Gold should anyhow, and soon trade back above its red line (and stay there) to proof any renewed strength. The red line stands at 1.212 as of yesterday’s close.

XAUAFTERFRIDAY091118

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place, and the Gold's daily range. Here are golden rules.

 


DAX FRIDAY 09. NOV 18.

Dax Future index shows plenty of room to move the rest of the day.

According to the intraday map below, the first upcoming timewindow around 11:30 CET could give direction to around 14:50 CET for then to switch direction until 17:50 CET.

DAXFRIDAY 091118


GOLD FRIDAY & MONDAY

The Goldprice shows strong Fridays. 

Below is an intraday chart siting the one hour old Friday and the upcoming Monday.

GOLD MAPPED FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY

There seems to be two important timewindows to keep in mind for the two tradingdays:

About 12:10 CET Friday, and about 18:10 CET Monday.

 

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all trades and remember the daily range for it to be placed accordingly.


Gold shorter term

The Goldprice attempted again to trade up through resistance today, and instead retraced and turned south towards yesterday's and the overnight low.

This 10 minute line chart below tells where the Goldprice presently stands:

XAU10MIN

Technically, there could be three important price levels to watch shortly. If Gold trades up above 1.235 soon, there is quickly room to move towards the 1.300 level in the fastlane.

Any trading below the 1.224 level could trigger selling towards last week low @ the 1.212 area.

Looking at the red indicator - as long as trading is done below the red line, it favours the shortside. Trading above the red line favours longs. Gold needs to trade out of choppyness to start trending again.


Goldprice before US open

Gold favours shorts..

In the search of consistent trading patterns for the Gold price intraday, there are interesting observation from 14:20 – 15:20 CET (since July to present):

Thursday is the preferred day to go short gold from 14:20 – 15:20 CET. Wednesday is the day to stay Long, but from 14:00 CET, and to close the position at 15:00 CET.

Monday, Tuesday and Friday also favours short positions from 14:20 – 15:20 CET as pointed out below. Here are the distributions of favourable outcomes.

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
22% 21.8% 10.8% 25.6% 19.9%

 

These intraday patterns seems to be persistant regardless of the entire intraday priceaction from open to close, and regardless of 'longer trends'.GOLD INTRADAY TRADES 14 - 15

Always make sure to keep a relevant stop loss in place to limit losses, always remeber a daily range of an instrument, and always expect the unexpected!  


Nasdaq100 Mond 05. & Tuesd 06. Nov.

The Nasdaq100 Future tends to trade stronger through parts of the European session on Mondays (the last couple of months). The index then drifts lower towards the close of the US stockmarket session.

Monday has been the second weakest day of the week lately (after Wednesdays). Below is an intraday chart mapping Monday and Tuesday's potential developments.

Nasdaq100 Future mapped for Monday and Tuesday

Tuesday is trading weak until European afternoon, for then to trend smoothly throughout the US stockmarket hours. Tuesday shows to be the strongest day of the week lately, and negative sessions are few and only marginally into minus territory.

Designated timewindows are set to optimize entry and exit levels for positions. Remember that a timewindow could be where prices turns around, but it can also be where prices pause for then to continue or an already existing major or minor trend. When invested, always keep a preferred stop loss in place to limit losses. 

Times are CET.

 

...and here is the actual intradays traded:

NASDAQ100 MOND 05 AND TUESD 06 NOV

All four mapped timewindows proved to act as significant timezones / timewindows for the two actual tradingdays (Support to price, pause or resistance to price).


OMX 30 index Mond 05. Nov

Based on researched data of the Swedish OMX30 index for Monday 05. November, this is what an intraday map could look like.

OMX30 MAPPED MONDAY 051118

The last couple of months favours the short side for Mondays. If this trend is to continue, looking at the graph above, the high of the day could turn out to occur from at least just after lunch to run into the close.

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place.

 


Goldprice Friday - Monday

Goldprice proves to trade to the upside the latest Fridays.

Here is a map outlined for tomorrows Friday intraday, and upcoming Monday the 5th of November.

GOLD PRICE MAPPED SMALL FRID AND MOND

The chart points to a major intraday turnaround 17:00 CET Friday. If this timewindow is a top or a low is way too early to tell. But as of today Thursday, metals are strong - so if it persists, it could look pause / consolidate just before dinner time Friday, and then to look for support again Monday afternoon.

Only time will show if some of the timewindows above do transfer to actual trading patterns.

Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place no matter what direction is traded. If you are to pick up a trade at a certain time window you should be willing to give the position a stop loss enough room to play within at least the average daily range.


Nasdaq100 into November

The question is if the turn of the month for August, September and October could tell anything about the coming trading patterns for the 1st and 2nd tradingdays in November?

Today's 10 minute bar chart has put these three months into one graph for the Nasdaq100 Future index.

Displayed below are the intradays patterns for the first and second days of the last 3 months.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE 1ST AND 2ND DAY OF THE MONTH AUG SEPT AND OCT

Looking toward to todays and tomorrows trading sessions, the chart above shows that a timewindow could be seen around 16:30 CET Thursday, for then to trend until 15:50 CET on Friday.

Only time will show if this 'beginning of the month map' is a relevant tradingroute for this Nov 1st and Nov 2nd.

On the other hand, a different chart is mapped below. This is an ordinary intraday analysis for Thursday and Friday this week. Compared to the 'beginning of the month map', this intraday chart below, actually signals turningpoints for silmilar timewindows. First, Thursday around 4 PM CET, then Friday around 15:15 CET.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE MAP FOR THURSDAY NOV 1 AND FRIDAY NOV 2 2018 

Only time will show if these charts are any 'good' trading maps for today and tomorrow.

 

I N T R A D A Y . S E

IMG_4240

 

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