daily ranges - high to low or low to high

RANGE  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  
  DAILY  12.50  00.25  104  150  02.75  0.35  66.5  
30 MIN. 01.45 00.03 020 026 0.70 0.07 14.0  
2 HRS. 03.00 00.06 035 47 01.00 0.12 29.0  

Intraday-price-moves for spesified timeframes (showing the 'volatility' expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 for the day, then it is less likely Gold will stretch much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., do expect at least USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Be happy to acheive intraday gains equal to a specified range.

intraday chart and comment

December Fed & Gold next week

Next Wednesday, FOMC will hold its last Federal Reserve meeting of 2018. In conjuction to these meetings, there are larger than normal gold price fluctuations making great short term trading oppertunities. How much gold price change should be expected and in what direction?

The diagram below shows how gold tend to swing the days pre and post a December Fed meeting. Today 12.12, markets are trading day 2 in the overview, were gold has the largest intraday stretch on average from low to high or high to low (the last 6 years). It has not been less than USD 10 the last years, rather closer to USD 20.

Number 8 in the overview, is 'equvalent' to next Wednesday the 19th.

FED GOLD VOLATILITY DECEMBER MEETINGS 2012 - 2017

Looking at the gold price trend through a December Fed meeting, markets on average see a fading price development over the next 2 weeks. See chart below. Next Wednesday is marked in yellow. The last years, gold has struggled to find buyingpower through these December meetings, as stockmarkets have been strong. But who knows, maybe it is all different this year..  

FED GOLD TREND DECEMBER 2012 - 2017

 

 

 


Dax and Gold for Tuesday 111218.

There are two routes put out for tomorrow Tuesday 11.12.18.

The first one is an analysis of Gold. The yellow metal do trade quite strongly during parts of Tuesday since this passed summer.

GOLD INTRADAY TUESDAY 111218 

Gold's three interesting timewindows to look out for tomorrow Tuesday, is just after midnight (all times displayed are set for CET / GMT + 1 HR.). The second timewindow is around 14:30 when the US Producer Price Index numbers are released. And the third window approx one hour before US trading session close. 

The Dax Future index map below shows a strong trending european stock market session for tomorrow Tuesday. The route suggests a down, but maps could be inverse.

DAX MAP TUESDAY 111218 

Remember that these maps are created based on researched intraday data, and may differ totally from what actually will happen in the markets. The timewindows could pinpoint market turns of interest or signal support or resistance to prices as they develop. You never know until tomorrow is history.

Always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all positions, and be aware of the daily ranges.

On top of this page you will see how much certain instruments move within its certain timeframe.

 

...And below - the actual traded Gold market and DAX Future for this Tuesday:

131218 - GOLD ACTUAL TUESDAY 111218

When it comes to the Gold development for Tuesday (see actual traded chart above), the map outlined to buy at about 00:10 CET for then to sell out the position at 14:30 CET. At 14:30 CET, a short position is entered and then covered around 20:50 CET. The range (low to high, or high to low) this intraday was USD 7. Following the map took home the profit of + USD 6.9, using only stop loss of USD 2 a trade. Tight, but enough to not be stopped out.

Below is the Dax Future to be compared to its map (further up in this post).

131218 - DAX ACTUAL INTRADAY TUESDAY

The Dax Future suggested a strong trending map for Tuesday, and a potentially inverse one. This turned out to be the case.

So -  If believing in an inverse actual traded intraday, trading starts off 09:20 CET as a long position to be sold out around 16:10 CET, for then to switch to a short position to be covered 17:30 CET. This scenario made + 205 points with a 30 points stop loss. 

If the sited map was 100% followed, the stop loss would have determined the profit / loss case for the intraday. When entering a short position 09:20 CET, a stop loss of 30 points would have been hit within an hour. At that time or later in the day, a thought is to see the next upcoming timewindow as a high rather than a low for thereby to go short again. A short trade 16:10 CET to be covered 17:30 was highly profitable (+ 45 points). When adding this to the first loosing trade, this Tuesday turned out + 15 points. 


Nasdaq100 & Silver 041218.

After the last strong intradays, here is an updated chart vs the map of DJIA 1973-1974.

Nasdaq100 do continue to follow the 1973-1974 map of DJIA. Over the next period, markets would now see a lowpoint in approx. 30 intradays from yesterdays close.

Thereafter, rising prices equivalent to + 5.3% compared to yesterday's close . In time - in 51 tradingdays. From this point, markets could start the 143 days downtrend to mark its lowpoint in the beginning of October 2019. This slide may be counted as a fall of - 34%.

041218djia1973-1974

Only time will show if 1973-1974 proves to be the most 'correct' historical path.

 

Below is the Nasdaq100 index up against the price of Silver. A ratio is created to see the relative present values. The All time high for the Nasdaq100 index is marked by the vertical line for a broader perspective.

041218NASDAQ100SILVERATIO 


Dax index for Friday

The weak Friday.

When researching a roadmap for the Dax Future index for this Friday, there looks to be a turnaround just after the European open for then to see markets trend lower into the US session. This complete mapped intraday chart is layed out below.

DAX MAPPED FOR FRIDAY NOV 30 2018

Looking deeper into Friday's development for this index, there is a part of the day which stands out. This time span runs from 14:00 - 15:00 CET:

Below is a table outlining how the DAX performs until now that one hour of trading from July this year.

DAX Fridays to Nov 30th 2018 

The average movement for the index is - 18 points from 14 - 15 CET and the range 58 points. Why this downmove has been so consistant is difficult to tell, but economic macro data normally released 14:30 CET could be an essential factor.  

This table do support today's intraday Dax map, but remember that timewindows may act inverse or even accelerate an already existing trend. Read stop loss.

 

...And here is the actual traded Das Future index for Friday the 30th:

DAX ACTUAL FOR FRIDAY NOV 30TH

Depending on how this map for Friday was traded, the outcome by following the map could resulted in + 40 points this intraday. The trades could for ex have been - Long at 04:10 to sell out at 09:30. Turn short at 09:30 to cover the position 15:50. Go long 15:50 to sell out 16:40.

The results will obviously depend on were stop losses are placed, and how exact the timing of the trades are up against the timewindows.

 

 


GOLD 14:20-15:20

At times, Gold can make explosive moves as yesterday, when the Fed Chairman held a speech.

Fast forward to 0:32:30 minutes to hear the speech.

GOLD MOVE WEDNESDAY 281118

The markets knew in advance about the upcoming Powell's speech and Gold traded in a tight range in the hours leading up to the event: Then - a way to play this 'potential' explosive move, could be to place 'a stop buy order' at 1.215 one hour into the US trading session and simultaneously place 'a stop loss order' just below the 15:20 CET low or by 1/2 the daily range of USD 12,5. After the excecution of the 'stop buy order', the stop loss could have been trailed to entry at 1.215 or higher. Alternatively, sold out after X USD.

A larger one minute chart with highs and lows showing the FED Gold behaviour from 2 hours pre speech to 3 hours post the speech is at this link. Times are CET.: "A top 22 minutes before the speech, thereby an explosive move to the upside without looking back. Immediate buyingpower. The strong buying lasts only 11 minutes, for there to sell off for 33 minutes. Buying comes in again lasting 29 minutes, for then to fade off over the next 56 minutes".

Here is tick by tick of how Gold vs Silver vs Nasdaq100 index moved parts of this intraday.

GOLDSIVERNASDAQ100SPEACH281118

All 3 strong, but Gold most reluctant, Silver more explosive, Nasdaq100 steady strong buying. 

Speaking of moves in the Gold market, 15:20 CET is an interesting timewindow. It is just ahead of the US Open, but also the time where short trades from 14:20 CET could be exited:

Throughout the tradingweek, research proves that the Gold market favours traders to stay short from 14:20 - 15:20 CET.

goldweektrades

The last few weeks has changed these tradingpatterns slightly, and Wednesday has gone from showing a positive hour to a negative hour. All 5 tradingdays of the week are presently in a negative territory this one trading hour. See last post here.

The wild 'FED chart' above is a great example of how quickly markets may change.

Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place. No matter the direction of the trade. Passed performance does not equal future performance. 

For questions or comments email any time intraday@intraday.no


1973-1974 vs 2018-2019.

An interesting observation about 1973 into 1974.

If present market status is to be compared to 1973 - 1974, there are interesting observations for the next year, see chart below. The red line shows where the Nasdaq100 index stands today, and the dark line shows the development for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

DJIA 1973 VS NQ100 2018

- The Nasdaq100 index will see a broader consolidation fase (or stay relatively unchanged) from present levels until the second week of June of 2019.

But - over the coming 55 tradingdays, markets will see an upturn of + 9.5%, and thereby slide -34% over 143 tradingdays into its first week of October of 2019.

That October 2019 low, will be retested one percent lower 45 intradays later, in early December of 2019. The periods mentioned are marked in the chart above with red dots.

Passed performance do never equal future performance. 


Nasdaq100's next fase

A few days ago, the 16th of November, this post was put out for the Nasdaq100 index.

Continuing the conversation about the Nasdaq100 development, the big question is IF the index now will continue to follow the 2007 route (see graph below), or - if it will drop straight through the floor (red support line) and outpace the 2007 into 2008 downtrend.

The two red dots marked in the dark graph below shows a fall of 20% in 56 tradingdays. For the present red graph to follow this map more closely, the index should preferrably bounce in the beginning of this week, for thereby to start the real - 20% drop about Thursday the 29th of November to last 56 intradays. 

nasdaq100 now vs 2007 into 2008

Only time will show if there is some validity to this 2007 into 2008 map...

If now taking this a step further adding the 1973 and 1987 for the DJIA and 2000 and 2007 for the Nasdaq100 index, and comparing it to present levels for the Nasdaq100 index - this is what you got:

MARKETS

The red dots marks the low point of its respective downtrends.

Calculated from Fridays close, you will find that the DJIA development in 1973 is 2.7% lower in 36 tradingdays. The DJIA in 1987 is 21% lower in 34 tradingdays. The year 2000 for the Nasdaq100 index equals 10% lower in 4 days, and the Nasdaq100 in 2007 is 20% lower in 56 intradays.


Gold's new calendar?

Gold June to June.

The yearly calendar starts January 1st and ends December 31st.

Below is Gold's development set into a different perspective. The chart shows the average two year period (in Blue) from June 2001 to June 2016 up against the latest running 2 year period (in Red) from June 2017 - June 2019.

Gold markets are presently trading in a seaonally strong period until late February of 2019. Looking at the chart, there is + 6% (to 1.294) from todays price level 1.221 to the average seasonal high.   

GOLD JUNE TO JUNE

The Blue graph seems to show limited downside from here, but there are plenty of examples were seasonalities or predictions fails or act inverse. Make sure to always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all trades, long or short. 


Nasdaq100 - strong Tuesday

The Nasdaq100 Future index has proved to show strong Tuesdays since this summer. This is the strongest intraday of the entire week. Wednesday is the weakest.

Below is a map sited for the next two intradays after analysing marketdata. Looking at past performance for tomorrow and Wednesday, markets could start buying into a rebound rally lasting from about 14:40 CET Tuesday into the US open Wednesday 15:40 CET.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place, and remember the average daily range for the index (not to be stopped out at the 'wrong' level).

Timewindows may be a time of the day where prices make solid turnarounds, pause or accellerate an already existing trend. The picture may also act inverse to what you see (a low could be a high and high could be a low). By entering or exiting around a dedicated timewindow you may acheive a more optimal price, by foreseeing a potential support and resistance level.

Here is a large image of the Nasdaq100 Future index above


Nasdaq100 - 20% soon?

Will Nasdaq100 soon drop 20%?

From the recent market peak October 1st, we have compared the Nasdaq100 index to marketmoves in 2007, 2000 and 1987.

If you are taking a closer look at the Nasdaq100 index peak for 2007 trading into 2008, you see high correlations to the present market situation. See chart below.

NASDAQ100NOWVS2007

If this 2007 chart above is a roadmap going forward - a drop of 20% in 56 tradingdays is within reach for the Nasdaq100 index shortly:

Transferring the 2007 points to the present situation, the first red dot would now be placed on next next Tuesday the 29th of November. A second red dot will be placed 56 tradingdays later and turn out to be about 15th of January 2019.

The red hoisontal lines are set to show the importance to the supportlevel from 29th of october this year duplicated from the 2007 supportlevel. A daily close below this area is quickly a confirmation of weakness.

Only time will show is this route is the present correct map into 2019.

 


SILVER NOW VS 2007 & 1987

Silver's next phase + 47% or - 11%?

The white metal looks to face an interesting trading period over the next 3 months. Historically, the seasonal trend may be strong from now on out through February. So, could Silver manage to go against the current stockmarket trend going forward? 

The Silver chart below (a period in 2007 into 2008), shows a strong uptrend for Silver gaining 47% where Nasdaq100 fell 22%. Looking at the red line (where XAG is now), you find that Silver could be turning up as soon as within this week (if 2007 is some sort of map). 

SILVER NOV   

On the other hand, in 1987 into 1988 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 31% over this very same period (peak + about 100 tradingdays).

At that time, Silver did not manage to stay against the stockmarket and traded down 11%. The Silverchart below outlines the Silverprice in 1987 vs today. The "22 more intradays" circle is sited from yesterday's close.   

SILVER NOW VS 1987

Only time will show if 2007 or 1987 really is comparable. 


NASDAQ100's downtrend continues

Nasdaq100 could fall further before next bounce.

The Nasdaq100 index bounced off its lows at the turn of the month, and now looks to possibly continue its weakness (vs the 2007, 2000 and 1987 peaks), after consolidating the first real move down from its recent all time high October 1st. The index future is down 10.9%.

If the 2007, 2000, and 1987 peaks are still comparable to present price development, current weakness should bring the market(s) quite a bit lower within at least the next 9 trading sessions. Thereafter, the index should consolidate the move for a while.

See chart below.

NASDAQ100 PT


Gold short term 10.11.18

Gold was trading to the weak side the latter part of this week after having tested the 1.235 resistance level several times, but without follow-through. Gold is down USD 23, two times a daily range or - 1.9% from last Friday's close.

The red indicator in the chart below as a moving average, is a lagging one but could effectively benefit traders showing strength confirmation to price movements. This exponential moving average (EMA) gives more weight to the latest price data and thereby reacting faster to momentum.

Looking into next week, the mapped intraday chart (see yesterday’s post), does not show an important timewindow until about 18:10 CET. This map is based on historical intraday data, and will be interesting to see how it matches up with the red EMA indicator in the 10 minute chart below.

Gold should anyhow, and soon trade back above its red line (and stay there) to proof any renewed strength. The red line stands at 1.212 as of yesterday’s close.

XAUAFTERFRIDAY091118

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place, and the Gold's daily range. Here are golden rules.

 


DAX FRIDAY 09. NOV 18.

Dax Future index shows plenty of room to move the rest of the day.

According to the intraday map below, the first upcoming timewindow around 11:30 CET could give direction to around 14:50 CET for then to switch direction until 17:50 CET.

DAXFRIDAY 091118


GOLD FRIDAY & MONDAY

The Goldprice shows strong Fridays. 

Below is an intraday chart siting the one hour old Friday and the upcoming Monday.

GOLD MAPPED FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY

There seems to be two important timewindows to keep in mind for the two tradingdays:

About 12:10 CET Friday, and about 18:10 CET Monday.

 

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all trades and remember the daily range for it to be placed accordingly.


Gold shorter term

The Goldprice attempted again to trade up through resistance today, and instead retraced and turned south towards yesterday's and the overnight low.

This 10 minute line chart below tells where the Goldprice presently stands:

XAU10MIN

Technically, there could be three important price levels to watch shortly. If Gold trades up above 1.235 soon, there is quickly room to move towards the 1.300 level in the fastlane.

Any trading below the 1.224 level could trigger selling towards last week low @ the 1.212 area.

Looking at the red indicator - as long as trading is done below the red line, it favours the shortside. Trading above the red line favours longs. Gold needs to trade out of choppyness to start trending again.


Goldprice before US open

Gold favours shorts..

In the search of consistent trading patterns for the Gold price intraday, there are interesting observation from 14:20 – 15:20 CET (since July to present):

Thursday is the preferred day to go short gold from 14:20 – 15:20 CET. Wednesday is the day to stay Long, but from 14:00 CET, and to close the position at 15:00 CET.

Monday, Tuesday and Friday also favours short positions from 14:20 – 15:20 CET as pointed out below. Here are the distributions of favourable outcomes.

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
22% 21.8% 10.8% 25.6% 19.9%

 

These intraday patterns seems to be persistant regardless of the entire intraday priceaction from open to close, and regardless of 'longer trends'.GOLD INTRADAY TRADES 14 - 15

Always make sure to keep a relevant stop loss in place to limit losses, always remeber a daily range of an instrument, and always expect the unexpected!  


Nasdaq100 Mond 05. & Tuesd 06. Nov.

The Nasdaq100 Future tends to trade stronger through parts of the European session on Mondays (the last couple of months). The index then drifts lower towards the close of the US stockmarket session.

Monday has been the second weakest day of the week lately (after Wednesdays). Below is an intraday chart mapping Monday and Tuesday's potential developments.

Nasdaq100 Future mapped for Monday and Tuesday

Tuesday is trading weak until European afternoon, for then to trend smoothly throughout the US stockmarket hours. Tuesday shows to be the strongest day of the week lately, and negative sessions are few and only marginally into minus territory.

Designated timewindows are set to optimize entry and exit levels for positions. Remember that a timewindow could be where prices turns around, but it can also be where prices pause for then to continue or an already existing major or minor trend. When invested, always keep a preferred stop loss in place to limit losses. 

Times are CET.

 

...and here is the actual intradays traded:

NASDAQ100 MOND 05 AND TUESD 06 NOV

All four mapped timewindows proved to act as significant timezones / timewindows for the two actual tradingdays (Support to price, pause or resistance to price).


OMX 30 index Mond 05. Nov

Based on researched data of the Swedish OMX30 index for Monday 05. November, this is what an intraday map could look like.

OMX30 MAPPED MONDAY 051118

The last couple of months favours the short side for Mondays. If this trend is to continue, looking at the graph above, the high of the day could turn out to occur from at least just after lunch to run into the close.

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place.

 


Goldprice Friday - Monday

Goldprice proves to trade to the upside the latest Fridays.

Here is a map outlined for tomorrows Friday intraday, and upcoming Monday the 5th of November.

GOLD PRICE MAPPED SMALL FRID AND MOND

The chart points to a major intraday turnaround 17:00 CET Friday. If this timewindow is a top or a low is way too early to tell. But as of today Thursday, metals are strong - so if it persists, it could look pause / consolidate just before dinner time Friday, and then to look for support again Monday afternoon.

Only time will show if some of the timewindows above do transfer to actual trading patterns.

Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place no matter what direction is traded. If you are to pick up a trade at a certain time window you should be willing to give the position a stop loss enough room to play within at least the average daily range.



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