trading ranges - high to low or low to high

RANGE  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  WTI OIL
30 MIN. 01.45 00.03 023 027 00.70 00.07 014 00.30 
2 HRS. 03.00 00.06 041 050 01.00 00.12 029 00.50 
4 HRS 04.30 00.09 048 067 01.30 00.17 037 00.70
6 HRS 05.70 00.12 061 086 01.30 00.17 033 00.80
DAILY 12.20 00.25 136 179 02.60 00.33 074 01.80
WEEKLY 26.50 00.53 306 426 05.40 00.69 157 03.90

Intraday-price-moves for dedicated timeframes (showing the 'volatility' expected). Ex: If @ 02:00 PM Gold has already moved USD 14 for the day, then it is less likely Gold will stretch much further that day. Within a 2 hour period for ex., do expect a USD 3 move for GOLD and so on. Be happy to acheive intraday gains equal to a specified range. Numbers also to be used towards stop loss ranges.

intraday chart and comment

Gold on track

The Goldprice is holding up with its roadmap from earlier years. In order to continue on this path, markets needs to keep off / stay above last weeks low @ 1.306.

180219 - GOLD ROADMAP

The upcoming seasonal top finds place next Monday February 25th plus minus one tradingday. Only time will show if this proves correct this time around.

At the same time, it is interesting to take a look at the price of Platinum to Gold. The rear metal has continued to see weakness and the relative strength to Gold is actually - 15.6% since November 8th. At that time, gold traded at 1.223,5.

Since 1970, Platinum is currently seeing a value which is - 56% lower than its average relative price to Gold. A ratio this low has never been observed during the analyzed period. This is telling us that Platinum may be dirt cheap at current levels from an historial perspective. 

180219 - PLATINUM GOLD RATIO DAILY

The Red solid line in the graph above, is a 50 day moving average which is now + 3.9% above the closing this passed Friday.

If or rather when markets see Platinum to Gold above this Red solid line, it could be a first and clearer sign that the price of Platinum could be entering a period where it will outperform Gold, or that markets wish to prefer having Platinum over Gold.

To put preent state into perspective - Gold is now trading USD 97.5 above its November price, and Platinum is trading USD 63,5 lower than its November price.

Only time will show when markets wants this equilibrium to level out..

 


Nasdaq100 & the markets

Nasdaq100 has managed to move + 15% since x-mas, but is still - 10% from the October 2018 All Time High.

Updating the present longer term chart and comparing it to how the DJIA and DAX performed in 1966 into 1967 and 1973 into 1974, - it seems that markets next fase is more likely to turn lower over the next 135 to 170 tradingdays.

090219 - nasdaq100 vs 1966-1967 and 1973-1974

The 4 Red Dots are marked by the respective periodical lows, and shows us that 'if these market-maps are guides', a first potential low for Nasdaq100 will be in about 135 tradingsessions (66-67 DJIA) from this Monday 11th of Feb.. Most similar to the present price action developing from the October 1st top, continues to be the 73-74 DJIA scenario - with a lowpoint about 147 tradingdays away, and - 30.5% lower than yesterday Friday close.

According to the market-map from 1973 - 1974, there should now be about 4-5 tradingdays  more before 143 trading-sessions of sliding..


Roadmap for Gold

Gold continues to trade strong in accordance to its seasonality - so far. Here is its present state up against the 'roadmap' for the yellow metal based on historical research.

060219 - DAILY ROADMAP FOR GOLD

The peak for the Green mapped line is 21 calendardays way (Feb. 26th).

Only time will show if this proves to be true this year, or if it only belongs to the past. Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place at your suited pricelevel.


GOLD TURN OF THE MONTH

Research shows that the Goldprice tends to trade higher through the last two days of the month into the first two days of the next month. This 4-days trading period sees higher Gold in 4 out of the last 6 'turn of the month' cases.

290119 - GOLD TURN OF MONTH

Summing all last six four days periods makes up + 1.3%.

Remeber that what happened in the passed is not equal to what will happen in the future... but these are interesting observations in conjuction to what really happens when a trading month comes to an end, to start another.


DAX TURN OF THE MONTH

Research shows that the German DAX index now performs sluggish around the turn of the month.

By looking at how the index performs 'two tradingdays before through two tradingdays after' the change of a month, you see that markets favours to turn significantly lower within this short 4 day timeframe four out of the last five instances.

 

290119 - DAX OVER THE MONTH

Trading over August to September saw the index drop - 2.7%. The 4 intradays October to November brought the index + 2.6% higher, but all last 5 'turn of the month' cases shows negative development of totally - 4.4%.

The tradingperiod analysed equals a start tomorrow Wednesday to end Monday. Remeber that passed performance is history and by no means accurate of what will happen in the future. Even though, the research here is an interesting observation of the passed.


NASDAQ100 DAILY

Time to get back to earth. The Nasdaq100 index is now up 15.5% since x-mas (see daily chart below). This means the index has retraced back 50% of the 60 tradingdays downturn from October 1st at 7.700 peak to the December 26th low, in just 16 tradingdays.

170119 - NASDAQ100 SINCE X-MAS 

The last 4 weeks shows higher weekly lows, and higher weekly highs. A healthy sign of real strength. Tomorrow is Friday, the last tradingday of this week. Friday is traditionally a weaker tradingday for this index. Any pullback below todays low @ 6.614 is the first signal lower prices potetially to come. Only time will show further direction. Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place to limit your downside. 


SILVER DAILY

Silver has now traded strongly since December 26th, when it broke up through USD 14.90 resistance.

Totally, the upturn has lasted 44 tradingdays and + 10.40% since it found the 13.90 level low on November 14th. This proved to be a retest of the September 11th low, and thereby forming a double bottom.

160119 - SILVER DAILY CHART

Going forward, the industrial metal needs to trade outside its current 8 days long tight trading-range...and follow through to determine next course.

As for the remainer of the week, Thursdays and Friday historically shows to be strong intradays. Time will show, and always remember stop loss wherever preferred.


Markets in perspective

Looking at history, reseach shows that stockmarkets could be far away from their end to current downturn. It seems that the October 01st 2018 top was spot on for now.

The graph below gives you the perspective. In February of 1966 the DJIA and DAX started trending down to bottom around the new year of 1967. In late October of 1973 DJIA and the DAX indices started the downturns ending in October of 1974.

Putting these downtrends into perspective, there are now between 154 and 189 intradays to go from present levels until markets could see their low points. These are marked with RED dots in the chart below.

By continuing to follow the DJIA path for 1973 into 1974, markets should not rule out prices - 30% lower than present levels this October of 2019 for thereby to be retested in December.  

140119 - NASDAQ100 IN PERSPECTIVE


Trading ranges

030119 - tradingrange table percent

Its moving up, its moving down, but how much is it actually moving within a certain timeframe?

Trading ranges are important because they tell you how much your trade or investment may move within a certain timeframe. Many traders use trading ranges as an effecient parameter to place stop loss - and take profit orders.

The table above shows how much Euro to USD, Gold- and Silver prices, the Dax index, Platinum, the Nasdaq100 index, Sugar-, Coffee-, Cocoa-, and Oil prices and Bitcoin moves within set timeframes. The currency pair Euro to USD, Gold- and Silver prices moves the least, as Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Oilprices and Bitcoin makes the most and solid price moves.

The table shows the average trading range of the last 1.000 bars for its timewindow.'1 DAY and 1 WEEK' shows the daily and weekly trading ranges for 2018.

30 MIN more than 0.5%: Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

2 HRS more than 1%: Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

4 HRS more than 1.5%: Cocoa and Bitcoin.

6 HRS more than 2%: Bitcoin.

1 DAY more than 2%: Nasdaq100 index, Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

1 WEEK more than 5%: Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, WTI Oil and Bitcoin.

 


Gold pre X-mas 2019.

Status Goldprice (14:00 CET) in relation to December Fed meeting yesterday is sited below. The vertical red line is placed '2 hours after US Open tomorrow', Friday. 

The Red graph illustrates where Gold is presently trading compared to the Fed meetings in Aug., Sept., and Nov.. So far Gold is trading inverse (stronger) post the Fed meeting yesterday, compared to the events earlier this summer and fall. The chart do outline the next 4 tradingdays for Aug., Sept., and Nov..

201218 - FED GOLD

If current strength continues, it is also inverse to earlier December Fed meetings researched from 2012 - 2017 which shows weakness post December Fed meetings (see post incl. table from the 18.12.18).


December FED, Gold and Nasdaq100

The overviews below might give clues to how it is likely for markets to develop over the next few intradays.

The tables show Gold's and Nasdaq100's price change pre and post passed a December Fed meeting. This December two day meeting starts today and finishes tomorrow Wednesday 19th.

See the event live here Wednesday 19th at 2:30 pm (GMT + 1 HR).

The tables shows day number 8 as tomorrows Fed day and is highlighted in yellow.

In general, Gold points to a low after the fed meeting except for last year. For this year 1.251 is the high price to watch so far, and 1.233 as the low for the analyzed period. Gold range easily more than USD 40 from high to low or low to high.

181218 - FED GOLD 2018

 

Nasdaq100 noted below, shows strength for a duration of 7 - 12 tradingdays lasting a few days post the FED meeting. The yellow line is also here noted on day 8 which is 'equvanlent' with tomorrow. When looking at the table, it could be relevant to see that Nasdaq100 have already fallen 450 points for this December. 

181218 - NASDAQ100 FED DECEMBER MEETING

Only time will show if this year is different. Always remeber to hold a preferred stop loss in place at all times.


December Fed & Gold next week

Next Wednesday, FOMC will hold its last Federal Reserve meeting of 2018. In conjuction to these meetings, there are larger than normal gold price fluctuations making great short term trading oppertunities. How much gold price change should be expected and in what direction?

The diagram below shows how gold tend to swing the days pre and post a December Fed meeting. Today 12.12, markets are trading day 2 in the overview, were gold has the largest intraday stretch on average from low to high or high to low (the last 6 years). It has not been less than USD 10 the last years, rather closer to USD 20.

Number 8 in the overview, is 'equvalent' to next Wednesday the 19th.

FED GOLD VOLATILITY DECEMBER MEETINGS 2012 - 2017

Looking at the gold price trend through a December Fed meeting, markets on average see a fading price development over the next 2 weeks. See chart below. Next Wednesday is marked in yellow. The last years, gold has struggled to find buyingpower through these December meetings, as stockmarkets have been strong. But who knows, maybe it is all different this year..  

FED GOLD TREND DECEMBER 2012 - 2017

 

 

 


Dax and Gold for Tuesday 111218.

There are two routes put out for tomorrow Tuesday 11.12.18.

The first one is an analysis of Gold. The yellow metal do trade quite strongly during parts of Tuesday since this passed summer.

GOLD INTRADAY TUESDAY 111218 

Gold's three interesting timewindows to look out for tomorrow Tuesday, is just after midnight (all times displayed are set for CET / GMT + 1 HR.). The second timewindow is around 14:30 when the US Producer Price Index numbers are released. And the third window approx one hour before US trading session close. 

The Dax Future index map below shows a strong trending european stock market session for tomorrow Tuesday. The route suggests a down, but maps could be inverse.

DAX MAP TUESDAY 111218 

Remember that these maps are created based on researched intraday data, and may differ totally from what actually will happen in the markets. The timewindows could pinpoint market turns of interest or signal support or resistance to prices as they develop. You never know until tomorrow is history.

Always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all positions, and be aware of the daily ranges.

On top of this page you will see how much certain instruments move within its certain timeframe.

 

...And below - the actual traded Gold market and DAX Future for this Tuesday:

131218 - GOLD ACTUAL TUESDAY 111218

When it comes to the Gold development for Tuesday (see actual traded chart above), the map outlined to buy at about 00:10 CET for then to sell out the position at 14:30 CET. At 14:30 CET, a short position is entered and then covered around 20:50 CET. The range (low to high, or high to low) this intraday was USD 7. Following the map took home the profit of + USD 6.9, using only stop loss of USD 2 a trade. Tight, but enough to not be stopped out.

Below is the Dax Future to be compared to its map (further up in this post).

131218 - DAX ACTUAL INTRADAY TUESDAY

The Dax Future suggested a strong trending map for Tuesday, and a potentially inverse one. This turned out to be the case.

So -  If believing in an inverse actual traded intraday, trading starts off 09:20 CET as a long position to be sold out around 16:10 CET, for then to switch to a short position to be covered 17:30 CET. This scenario made + 205 points with a 30 points stop loss. 

If the sited map was 100% followed, the stop loss would have determined the profit / loss case for the intraday. When entering a short position 09:20 CET, a stop loss of 30 points would have been hit within an hour. At that time or later in the day, a thought is to see the next upcoming timewindow as a high rather than a low for thereby to go short again. A short trade 16:10 CET to be covered 17:30 was highly profitable (+ 45 points). When adding this to the first loosing trade, this Tuesday turned out + 15 points. 


Nasdaq100 & Silver 041218.

After the last strong intradays, here is an updated chart vs the map of DJIA 1973-1974.

Nasdaq100 do continue to follow the 1973-1974 map of DJIA. Over the next period, markets would now see a lowpoint in approx. 30 intradays from yesterdays close.

Thereafter, rising prices equivalent to + 5.3% compared to yesterday's close . In time - in 51 tradingdays. From this point, markets could start the 143 days downtrend to mark its lowpoint in the beginning of October 2019. This slide may be counted as a fall of - 34%.

041218djia1973-1974

Only time will show if 1973-1974 proves to be the most 'correct' historical path.

 

Below is the Nasdaq100 index up against the price of Silver. A ratio is created to see the relative present values. The All time high for the Nasdaq100 index is marked by the vertical line for a broader perspective.

041218NASDAQ100SILVERATIO 


Dax index for Friday

The weak Friday.

When researching a roadmap for the Dax Future index for this Friday, there looks to be a turnaround just after the European open for then to see markets trend lower into the US session. This complete mapped intraday chart is layed out below.

DAX MAPPED FOR FRIDAY NOV 30 2018

Looking deeper into Friday's development for this index, there is a part of the day which stands out. This time span runs from 14:00 - 15:00 CET:

Below is a table outlining how the DAX performs until now that one hour of trading from July this year.

DAX Fridays to Nov 30th 2018 

The average movement for the index is - 18 points from 14 - 15 CET and the range 58 points. Why this downmove has been so consistant is difficult to tell, but economic macro data normally released 14:30 CET could be an essential factor.  

This table do support today's intraday Dax map, but remember that timewindows may act inverse or even accelerate an already existing trend. Read stop loss.

 

...And here is the actual traded Das Future index for Friday the 30th:

DAX ACTUAL FOR FRIDAY NOV 30TH

Depending on how this map for Friday was traded, the outcome by following the map could resulted in + 40 points this intraday. The trades could for ex have been - Long at 04:10 to sell out at 09:30. Turn short at 09:30 to cover the position 15:50. Go long 15:50 to sell out 16:40.

The results will obviously depend on were stop losses are placed, and how exact the timing of the trades are up against the timewindows.

 

 


GOLD 14:20-15:20

At times, Gold can make explosive moves as yesterday, when the Fed Chairman held a speech.

Fast forward to 0:32:30 minutes to hear the speech.

GOLD MOVE WEDNESDAY 281118

The markets knew in advance about the upcoming Powell's speech and Gold traded in a tight range in the hours leading up to the event: Then - a way to play this 'potential' explosive move, could be to place 'a stop buy order' at 1.215 one hour into the US trading session and simultaneously place 'a stop loss order' just below the 15:20 CET low or by 1/2 the daily range of USD 12,5. After the excecution of the 'stop buy order', the stop loss could have been trailed to entry at 1.215 or higher. Alternatively, sold out after X USD.

A larger one minute chart with highs and lows showing the FED Gold behaviour from 2 hours pre speech to 3 hours post the speech is at this link. Times are CET.: "A top 22 minutes before the speech, thereby an explosive move to the upside without looking back. Immediate buyingpower. The strong buying lasts only 11 minutes, for there to sell off for 33 minutes. Buying comes in again lasting 29 minutes, for then to fade off over the next 56 minutes".

Here is tick by tick of how Gold vs Silver vs Nasdaq100 index moved parts of this intraday.

GOLDSIVERNASDAQ100SPEACH281118

All 3 strong, but Gold most reluctant, Silver more explosive, Nasdaq100 steady strong buying. 

Speaking of moves in the Gold market, 15:20 CET is an interesting timewindow. It is just ahead of the US Open, but also the time where short trades from 14:20 CET could be exited:

Throughout the tradingweek, research proves that the Gold market favours traders to stay short from 14:20 - 15:20 CET.

goldweektrades

The last few weeks has changed these tradingpatterns slightly, and Wednesday has gone from showing a positive hour to a negative hour. All 5 tradingdays of the week are presently in a negative territory this one trading hour. See last post here.

The wild 'FED chart' above is a great example of how quickly markets may change.

Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place. No matter the direction of the trade. Passed performance does not equal future performance. 

For questions or comments email any time intraday@intraday.no


1973-1974 vs 2018-2019.

An interesting observation about 1973 into 1974.

If present market status is to be compared to 1973 - 1974, there are interesting observations for the next year, see chart below. The red line shows where the Nasdaq100 index stands today, and the dark line shows the development for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

DJIA 1973 VS NQ100 2018

- The Nasdaq100 index will see a broader consolidation fase (or stay relatively unchanged) from present levels until the second week of June of 2019.

But - over the coming 55 tradingdays, markets will see an upturn of + 9.5%, and thereby slide -34% over 143 tradingdays into its first week of October of 2019.

That October 2019 low, will be retested one percent lower 45 intradays later, in early December of 2019. The periods mentioned are marked in the chart above with red dots.

Passed performance do never equal future performance. 


Nasdaq100's next fase

A few days ago, the 16th of November, this post was put out for the Nasdaq100 index.

Continuing the conversation about the Nasdaq100 development, the big question is IF the index now will continue to follow the 2007 route (see graph below), or - if it will drop straight through the floor (red support line) and outpace the 2007 into 2008 downtrend.

The two red dots marked in the dark graph below shows a fall of 20% in 56 tradingdays. For the present red graph to follow this map more closely, the index should preferrably bounce in the beginning of this week, for thereby to start the real - 20% drop about Thursday the 29th of November to last 56 intradays. 

nasdaq100 now vs 2007 into 2008

Only time will show if there is some validity to this 2007 into 2008 map...

If now taking this a step further adding the 1973 and 1987 for the DJIA and 2000 and 2007 for the Nasdaq100 index, and comparing it to present levels for the Nasdaq100 index - this is what you got:

MARKETS

The red dots marks the low point of its respective downtrends.

Calculated from Fridays close, you will find that the DJIA development in 1973 is 2.7% lower in 36 tradingdays. The DJIA in 1987 is 21% lower in 34 tradingdays. The year 2000 for the Nasdaq100 index equals 10% lower in 4 days, and the Nasdaq100 in 2007 is 20% lower in 56 intradays.


Gold's new calendar?

Gold June to June.

The yearly calendar starts January 1st and ends December 31st.

Below is Gold's development set into a different perspective. The chart shows the average two year period (in Blue) from June 2001 to June 2016 up against the latest running 2 year period (in Red) from June 2017 - June 2019.

Gold markets are presently trading in a seaonally strong period until late February of 2019. Looking at the chart, there is + 6% (to 1.294) from todays price level 1.221 to the average seasonal high.   

GOLD JUNE TO JUNE

The Blue graph seems to show limited downside from here, but there are plenty of examples were seasonalities or predictions fails or act inverse. Make sure to always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all trades, long or short. 


Nasdaq100 - strong Tuesday

The Nasdaq100 Future index has proved to show strong Tuesdays since this summer. This is the strongest intraday of the entire week. Wednesday is the weakest.

Below is a map sited for the next two intradays after analysing marketdata. Looking at past performance for tomorrow and Wednesday, markets could start buying into a rebound rally lasting from about 14:40 CET Tuesday into the US open Wednesday 15:40 CET.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place, and remember the average daily range for the index (not to be stopped out at the 'wrong' level).

Timewindows may be a time of the day where prices make solid turnarounds, pause or accellerate an already existing trend. The picture may also act inverse to what you see (a low could be a high and high could be a low). By entering or exiting around a dedicated timewindow you may acheive a more optimal price, by foreseeing a potential support and resistance level.

Here is a large image of the Nasdaq100 Future index above



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