daily ranges - high to low or low to high

 DAILY RANGES  GOLD  SILVER  NASDAQ100  DAX  COFFEE  SUGAR  COCOA  
  SINCE AUG 18  12.5  00.25  104  150  02.75  0.35  66.5  

Here are average intraday price moves showing the 'volatility' to expect. Ex.: if it is 2 PM & Gold has already moved USD 14, it is less likely the Gold price would stretch further that day. Be happy to acheive intraday gains equal to an average.

intraday chart and comment

SILVER NOW VS 2007 & 1987

Silver's next phase + 47% or - 11%?

The white metal looks to face an interesting trading period over the next 3 months. Historically, the seasonal trend may be strong from now on out through February. So, could Silver manage to go against the current stockmarket trend going forward? 

The Silver chart below (a period in 2007 into 2008), shows a strong uptrend for Silver gaining 47% where Nasdaq100 fell 22%. Looking at the red line (where XAG is now), you find that Silver could be turning up as soon as within this week (if 2007 is some sort of map). 

SILVER NOV   

On the other hand, in 1987 into 1988 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 31% over this very same period (peak + about 100 tradingdays).

At that time, Silver did not manage to stay against the stockmarket and traded down 11%. The Silverchart below outlines the Silverprice in 1987 vs today. The "22 more intradays" circle is sited from yesterday's close.   

SILVER NOW VS 1987

Only time will show if 2007 or 1987 really is comparable. 


NASDAQ100's downtrend continues

Nasdaq100 could fall further before next bounce.

The Nasdaq100 index bounced off its lows at the turn of the month, and now looks to possibly continue its weakness (vs the 2007, 2000 and 1987 peaks), after consolidating the first real move down from its recent all time high October 1st. The index future is down 10.9%.

If the 2007, 2000, and 1987 peaks are still comparable to present price development, current weakness should bring the market(s) quite a bit lower within at least the next 9 trading sessions. Thereafter, the index should consolidate the move for a while.

See chart below.

NASDAQ100 PT


Gold short term 10.11.18

Gold was trading to the weak side the latter part of this week after having tested the 1.235 resistance level several times, but without follow-through. Gold is down USD 23, two times a daily range or - 1.9% from last Friday's close.

The red indicator in the chart below as a moving average, is a lagging one but could effectively benefit traders showing strength confirmation to price movements. This exponential moving average (EMA) gives more weight to the latest price data and thereby reacting faster to momentum.

Looking into next week, the mapped intraday chart (see yesterday’s post), does not show an important timewindow until about 18:10 CET. This map is based on historical intraday data, and will be interesting to see how it matches up with the red EMA indicator in the 10 minute chart below.

Gold should anyhow, and soon trade back above its red line (and stay there) to proof any renewed strength. The red line stands at 1.212 as of yesterday’s close.

XAUAFTERFRIDAY091118

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place, and the Gold's daily range. Here are golden rules.

 


DAX FRIDAY 09. NOV 18.

Dax Future index shows plenty of room to move the rest of the day.

According to the intraday map below, the first upcoming timewindow around 11:30 CET could give direction to around 14:50 CET for then to switch direction until 17:50 CET.

DAXFRIDAY 091118


GOLD FRIDAY & MONDAY

The Goldprice shows strong Fridays. 

Below is an intraday chart siting the one hour old Friday and the upcoming Monday.

GOLD MAPPED FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY

There seems to be two important timewindows to keep in mind for the two tradingdays:

About 12:10 CET Friday, and about 18:10 CET Monday.

 

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place for all trades and remember the daily range for it to be placed accordingly.


Gold shorter term

The Goldprice attempted again to trade up through resistance today, and instead retraced and turned south towards yesterday's and the overnight low.

This 10 minute line chart below tells where the Goldprice presently stands:

XAU10MIN

Technically, there could be three important price levels to watch shortly. If Gold trades up above 1.235 soon, there is quickly room to move towards the 1.300 level in the fastlane.

Any trading below the 1.224 level could trigger selling towards last week low @ the 1.212 area.

Looking at the red indicator - as long as trading is done below the red line, it favours the shortside. Trading above the red line favours longs. Gold needs to trade out of choppyness to start trending again.


Goldprice before US open

Gold favours shorts..

In the search of consistent trading patterns for the Gold price intraday, there are interesting observation from 14:20 – 15:20 CET (since July to present):

Thursday is the preferred day to go short gold from 14:20 – 15:20 CET. Wednesday is the day to stay Long, but from 14:00 CET, and to close the position at 15:00 CET.

Monday, Tuesday and Friday also favours short positions from 14:20 – 15:20 CET as pointed out below. Here are the distributions of favourable outcomes.

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
22% 21.8% 10.8% 25.6% 19.9%

 

These intraday patterns seems to be persistant regardless of the entire intraday priceaction from open to close, and regardless of 'longer trends'.GOLD INTRADAY TRADES 14 - 15

Always make sure to keep a relevant stop loss in place to limit losses, always remeber a daily range of an instrument, and always expect the unexpected!  


Nasdaq100 Mond 05. & Tuesd 06. Nov.

The Nasdaq100 Future tends to trade stronger through parts of the European session on Mondays (the last couple of months). The index then drifts lower towards the close of the US stockmarket session.

Monday has been the second weakest day of the week lately (after Wednesdays). Below is an intraday chart mapping Monday and Tuesday's potential developments.

Nasdaq100 Future mapped for Monday and Tuesday

Tuesday is trading weak until European afternoon, for then to trend smoothly throughout the US stockmarket hours. Tuesday shows to be the strongest day of the week lately, and negative sessions are few and only marginally into minus territory.

Designated timewindows are set to optimize entry and exit levels for positions. Remember that a timewindow could be where prices turns around, but it can also be where prices pause for then to continue or an already existing major or minor trend. When invested, always keep a preferred stop loss in place to limit losses. 

Times are CET.

 

...and here is the actual intradays traded:

NASDAQ100 MOND 05 AND TUESD 06 NOV

All four mapped timewindows proved to act as significant timezones / timewindows for the two actual tradingdays (Support to price, pause or resistance to price).


OMX 30 index Mond 05. Nov

Based on researched data of the Swedish OMX30 index for Monday 05. November, this is what an intraday map could look like.

OMX30 MAPPED MONDAY 051118

The last couple of months favours the short side for Mondays. If this trend is to continue, looking at the graph above, the high of the day could turn out to occur from at least just after lunch to run into the close.

Remember to always keep a preferred stop loss in place.

 


Goldprice Friday - Monday

Goldprice proves to trade to the upside the latest Fridays.

Here is a map outlined for tomorrows Friday intraday, and upcoming Monday the 5th of November.

GOLD PRICE MAPPED SMALL FRID AND MOND

The chart points to a major intraday turnaround 17:00 CET Friday. If this timewindow is a top or a low is way too early to tell. But as of today Thursday, metals are strong - so if it persists, it could look pause / consolidate just before dinner time Friday, and then to look for support again Monday afternoon.

Only time will show if some of the timewindows above do transfer to actual trading patterns.

Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place no matter what direction is traded. If you are to pick up a trade at a certain time window you should be willing to give the position a stop loss enough room to play within at least the average daily range.


Nasdaq100 into November

The question is if the turn of the month for August, September and October could tell anything about the coming trading patterns for the 1st and 2nd tradingdays in November?

Today's 10 minute bar chart has put these three months into one graph for the Nasdaq100 Future index.

Displayed below are the intradays patterns for the first and second days of the last 3 months.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE 1ST AND 2ND DAY OF THE MONTH AUG SEPT AND OCT

Looking toward to todays and tomorrows trading sessions, the chart above shows that a timewindow could be seen around 16:30 CET Thursday, for then to trend until 15:50 CET on Friday.

Only time will show if this 'beginning of the month map' is a relevant tradingroute for this Nov 1st and Nov 2nd.

On the other hand, a different chart is mapped below. This is an ordinary intraday analysis for Thursday and Friday this week. Compared to the 'beginning of the month map', this intraday chart below, actually signals turningpoints for silmilar timewindows. First, Thursday around 4 PM CET, then Friday around 15:15 CET.

NASDAQ100 FUTURE MAP FOR THURSDAY NOV 1 AND FRIDAY NOV 2 2018 

Only time will show if these charts are any 'good' trading maps for today and tomorrow.

 


Markets tops as of Tuesday 30th Oct.

Nasdaq100 continues its weakness from Oct 1st, and is now down 11.2% since the recent peak. The table below shows how the present trading-level unfolds compared to the 2007 and 2000 peaks.

NASDAQ100 VS XAG TABLE

Markets are now 21 intradays post its very Nasdaq100 top. This table outlines performance through next Friday (29 tradingdays post its respective daily peaks). The table overview could now paint a consolidation fase over the coming 9 intradays for the index, and somewhat stronger Silver prices going into next Friday.

This next chart shows the development for both Nasdaq100 index and price of Silver for 46 intradays post the 2000, 2007 and 2018 peaks.

NASDAQ100 TOPS VS SILVER 2000 2007 2018

This last chart compares 1987 for DJIA vs Nasdaq100 in 2000, 2007 and 2018.

MARKETS XX

The red vertical line is placed at November 14th 2018, and the chart displays 100 tradingdays post respective peaks. Only time will show if history is a trading map.


Nasdaq100 Tuesday 30th / Wednesday 31st.

Markets are getting closer to a new tradingmonth, and the upcoming last two intradays of October may be volatile. A map for tomorrow's and Wednesday's intradays are presented in a chart below. Only the time will show if there is reliability to the patterns and timewindows outlined. All timewindows are CET.

NASDAQ100 INTRADAY TUESDAY 30TH AND WEDENSDAY 31ST OCT 2018 SMALL

A lager and clearer image can be viewed here

The last months shows Tuesday to be the strongest intraday of the week, and Wednesday the aboslutely weakest.

 

...and below is the actual intraday development for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Nasdaq100 Future Actual Tues 30th and Wedn 31st Oct 

The 05:30 timewindow highlighted in red shows the importance of time to change in course of price. The map outlined on Monday for Tuesday and Wednesday showed 05:30 as a 'high', and the actual market viewed this as a 'low' (for thereby explode to the upside). In other words a total inverse relationship.

The actual Nasdaq100 Future chart does in this case behave inverse in relation to the map. This gives an example of how important a timewindow could be. Remember to always keep a preferable stop loss in place to limit potential trading losses.


Sweden OMX index for Tuesday 30th.

An intraday chart for tomorrow Tuesday of the Swedish OMX 30 index is mapped out below.

OMX MAPPED FOR TUESDAY 30TH OCT 18

This chart is created from analysed intraday data spesified for the upcoming day.

A turnaround during lunch hours (CET) could be in the terrain, but be aware that a timewindow could pause an already existing trend and even make it accelerate. A preferred stop loss needs to be in place at all times.

...and below is the actual intraday Tuesday 30th.

 OMX TUESDAY 30TH OCT


DAX mapped Tuesday 30. Oct.

The Dax Future has been trending strongly down since late september, and the last 5 weeks have seen as much as close to a 1.100 points drop. The interesting aspect of this, is that - over 70% of this greater move come out of Wednesdays! Summing up the Tuesdays, it is the single positive intraday of the week. So looking back, Tuesday has been a day of consolidation before the index has turned lower.

Below is the researched and mapped Dax Future chart for tomorrow Tuesday. One bar represents 10 minutes of trading.

DAX FUTURE MAPPED FOR TUESDAY 30TH OCT 2018

The timewindow to be aware could definantly be 11:30 CET. Remember that this is the second to last day of the month and great fluctuations may occur. Always keep a preferred stop loss in place.

Looking back at the last two intradays called 'second to last intraday of the month', below is how the markets behaved for the DAX Future.

Dax second to last day of the month

The timewindows in Bold (11:30 and apprx. 22:00), are also the timewindows sited for tomorrows mapped intraday chart. The picture paints potential rising hours from 11:30 towards US session close @ 22:00 (CET).

 ...and below is the actual traded chart for this Tuesday 30th. of October.

Dax Future Tuesday 30th of Oct actual

The graph do show weakness from the European open into lunch hour, and strenght in the afternon - as the map explained. The actual picture showed rising hours from 11:30 towards US session close as the map initiated. Times are CET.


Silver Monday 29th and Tuesday 30th.

Silver found support 11th of September @ 13.95. Since October 1st, when the Nasdaq100 hit its all time high, the white metal has held up quite well. See daily chart below.

XAGDAILY

According to the daily bars, there is still room to move inside this rising wedge before a potentially explosive move..

Silver has been positive now for 35 tradingdays.

Looking to this upcoming tradingweek, the researched and mapped chart looks like this for the first two intradays Monday and Tuesday. Times sited are in CET.

MAPPED CHART FOR MOND 29TH AND TUESDAY 30TH OCT 2018 SMALL

Interestingly, The timewindow 16:40 could be clearly significant for both days! 

Remember that timewindows may be inverse for price to what you see, and it may also excellerate an already existing trend. - Do always keep a relevant stop loss in place.

A clearer and lager chart can be viewed here.

Lately, Monday is the weakest intraday of the week, and Tuesday the strongest - ahead of Thursdays..

Have a nice tradingweek : ).

 

...and below is the actual traded Silver price chart for mapping comparison:

SILVERACTUALMONDAYTUESDAY


Nasdaq100 Peaks vs Silver

This chart displays how the Nasdaq100 index and Silver performs these days - compared to the Nasdaq100 peak in 2000 and 2007. This story continues as a followup few intradays after the very top this year October 1st.

The Nasdaq100 index is presently down 10% from its peak, and looks to find a temp. bottom quite soon (if comparing the peaks of 2000 and 2007), to trade sideways before heading further south again. Markets are dynamic, and only time will show if history is 'repeatable'.

NASDAQ100 PEAK VS SILVER

Silver is holding up strong and the question is - if it could start a new uptrend withing the next 15 intraday sessions as in 2007? See chart below.

SILVER NOW VS SILVER IN 2007

 


Coffee Monday 29. & Tuesday 30.

Coffee prices have been strong lately, after testing its summer-lows of 2006 in September.

Here is how the Coffee behaves the last few weeks (total):

COFFEE PRICES LAST 5 WEEKS

Monday has definitly produced the weakest intraday results of the week, and Friday the really strongest.

Looking to the upcoming tradingweek, the chart below displays a mapped pattern for Monday and Tuesday based on intraday data.

COFFEE INTRADAY MAPPED MOND 29TH AND TUESD 30TH

Viewing the 10 minute bar chart above, Monday the 29th seems to be a sideways to down day. Tuesday the 30th around 11:10 CEST looks to be the first interresting timewindow to watch in conjunction to the last tradinghour later in the day. Only time will show how this map turns up against upcoming actual coffee prices.

..and here are the actual traded coffee contracts below.

COFFEE INTRADAY ACTUAL MOND 29TH AND TUESD 30TH

This shows the importance of the two timewindow for Coffee.  Short position entry @ 14:10 Monday and exited @ 11:00 Tuesday counted as a 5% move. Looking back, it is valuable to see how the prior Mondays behaved (see daily coffee price table above)


Sugar prices Thursday 25. & Friday 26th.

The Sugar contracts have been trending significantly higher the last 2 months since testing August 2015 LOW levels on August 22nd 2018. When this commodity starts trending, it does it beautifully.

Looking towards the shorter term moves below, there is a researched intraday pattern in Sugar # 11 Futures contracts for Thursday 25th and Friday 26th linked together.

SUGAR iNTRADAY 25AND26TH OCT 2018

A major timewindow is intended Thursday afternoon around 14:30 CEST, for then to keep trending through Friday. But you never know.

Anyhow - do not fight the tape - the trend is usually your friend.

Remember to keep a preferred stop loss in place at all times (average daily range is 0.35).

This is a 30 minute bar chart.

...And below is the actual intraday chart for the two tradingdays.

Sugar Actual for Thursday 25. & Friday 26

The 14:30 timewindow proved to be essential and behaved inverse to the sited map into 10 o'clock Friday. The trend from Thursday continued through Friday.


Gold Thursday 25. & Friday 26.

This week you see the Goldprice for Thursday and Friday mapped together in this one chart below. The last couple of months shows generally a weak intraday Thursday and a stronger  session on Friday's. The strongest day of the week lately, is Tuesday's - by far. Wednesday's are the weakest of all.

Looking at the chart displayed, it seems there could be a greater reaction to price from around 09:00 AM CEST Thursday morning running into the afternoon - thereby more sideways to down pattern to about US. Opening bell, for then to close the Friday slightly higher than it started.

Only time will show if this turns out to be true.

GOLD PRICE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SMALL MAPPED

Above is a 10 minute bar chart sited in CEST times. A more clear picture of this 2-days chart can be viewed in a greater large format here.

 

..And the actual intraday Goldprice development for Thursday and Friday is here.



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